← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 68105
Observed , by baseline/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 0f92182f6367e183485a5993645a33afce52a0431a50435baecb1586c273c236
- Leaf
- 0x76adce0d311140f9e1cec5452840c5ca691320fdab652aa9214cd2f3f1df9916
What was observed
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"owner_address": "0x6d8444caed95d9155785da10ac00247948957d61",
"raw": {
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"methodology": "v4.16 — punkt=weighted-poll-avg-fenster5 (CLR-sim nur fuer verteilung/CI/sitze/koalitionen; ablation A6/A7 2026-06-10) + per-partei-sigma + party-correlation...",
"n_wahlen": 34,
"updated_at": "2026-10-18 04:30:24",
"winner_correct": 31,
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"description": "Forecasts frozen eight days before the election, measured against official results.",
"elections_2026": [
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"BSW": 5.3,
"CDU": 17.2,
"FDP": 2.6,
"Grüne": 8.9,
"Linke": 8.6,
"SPD": 9.3
},
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"eid": "st-2026",
"frozen_date": "2026-08-28",
"im_band": 5,
"mae": 2.47,
"name": "Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt",
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"date": "2026-09-20",
"eid": "be-2026",
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"im_band": 7,
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"name": "Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin",
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"v4_frozen": {
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"BSW": 3.8,
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"FDP": 3.3,
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"Linke": 20.2,
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"mae": 2.17,
"sieger": 3,
"slots": 21,
"wahlen": 3
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"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": null,
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)"
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"uncertainty": null,
"updated_at": "2026-10-19"
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"lastUpdated": "2026-10-19T13:53:14.646Z",
"quality": {
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"lastCalledAt": "2026-10-19T13:53:14.016Z"
},
"resource": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record",
"serviceName": "polls.karbach.digital",
"tags": [
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"polls",
"politics",
"bundestag"
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"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest. Use when asked how reliable these forecasts were in past elections. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours."
}What the leaf hashes
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- Day root
- 0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
- Chained
- 0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae