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Evidence row 68105

Observed , by baseline/1.

Kind
listing
About
source_record x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record
Recorded
Previous row
None: the first of its kind about this subject
Body SHA-256
0f92182f6367e183485a5993645a33afce52a0431a50435baecb1586c273c236
Leaf
0x76adce0d311140f9e1cec5452840c5ca691320fdab652aa9214cd2f3f1df9916

What was observed

{
  "endpoints": [
    [
      "x402",
      "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record"
    ]
  ],
  "name": "polls.karbach.digital",
  "owner_address": "0x6d8444caed95d9155785da10ac00247948957d61",
  "raw": {
    "accepts": [
      {
        "amount": "10000",
        "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "extra": {
          "name": "USD Coin",
          "version": "2"
        },
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "payTo": "0x6d8444CaEd95D9155785Da10aC00247948957D61",
        "scheme": "exact"
      }
    ],
    "description": "Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest. Use when asked how reliable these forecasts were in past elections. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.",
    "extensions": {
      "bazaar": {
        "info": {
          "input": {
            "method": "GET",
            "type": "http"
          },
          "output": {
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              "data": {
                "backtest_34_elections": {
                  "baseline_poll_avg_5_mae": {
                    "mean_mae": 1.3,
                    "n": 34
                  },
                  "brier": 0.0711,
                  "ci95_hit": 96.9,
                  "mae": 1.27,
                  "methodology": "v4.16 — punkt=weighted-poll-avg-fenster5 (CLR-sim nur fuer verteilung/CI/sitze/koalitionen; ablation A6/A7 2026-06-10) + per-partei-sigma + party-correlation...",
                  "n_wahlen": 34,
                  "updated_at": "2026-10-18 04:30:24",
                  "winner_correct": 31,
                  "winner_total": 34
                },
                "description": "Forecasts frozen eight days before the election, measured against official results.",
                "elections_2026": [
                  {
                    "actual": {
                      "AfD": 43.8,
                      "BSW": 5.3,
                      "CDU": 17.2,
                      "FDP": 2.6,
                      "Grüne": 8.9,
                      "Linke": 8.6,
                      "SPD": 9.3
                    },
                    "date": "2026-09-06",
                    "eid": "st-2026",
                    "frozen_date": "2026-08-28",
                    "im_band": 5,
                    "mae": 2.47,
                    "name": "Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt",
                    "parteien": 7,
                    "sieger_stimmt": true,
                    "v4_frozen": {
                      "AfD": 42.3,
                      "BSW": 4.1,
                      "CDU": 22.1,
                      "FDP": 3.3,
                      "Grüne": 5.3,
                      "Linke": 12,
                      "SPD": 7.3
                    }
                  },
                  {
                    "actual": {
                      "AfD": 16.3,
                      "BSW": 4.7,
                      "CDU": 18.8,
                      "FDP": 2.5,
                      "Grüne": 14.3,
                      "Linke": 25.7,
                      "SPD": 12.1
                    },
                    "date": "2026-09-20",
                    "eid": "be-2026",
                    "frozen_date": "2026-09-11",
                    "im_band": 7,
                    "mae": 1.74,
                    "name": "Abgeordnetenhaus Berlin",
                    "parteien": 7,
                    "sieger_stimmt": true,
                    "v4_frozen": {
                      "AfD": 18,
                      "BSW": 3.8,
                      "CDU": 19.9,
                      "FDP": 3.3,
                      "Grüne": 16.1,
                      "Linke": 20.2,
                      "SPD": 12.5
                    }
                  }
                ],
                "summary_2026": {
                  "im_band": 17,
                  "mae": 2.17,
                  "sieger": 3,
                  "slots": 21,
                  "wahlen": 3
                }
              },
              "docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
              "model": null,
              "notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
              "project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
              "source": {
                "polls": "dawum.de",
                "polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
                "polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
                "processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)"
              },
              "uncertainty": null,
              "updated_at": "2026-10-19"
            },
            "type": "json"
          }
        },
        "schema": {
          "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
          "properties": {
            "input": {
              "additionalProperties": false,
              "properties": {
                "method": {
                  "enum": [
                    "GET",
                    "HEAD",
                    "DELETE"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "queryParams": {
                  "properties": {},
                  "type": "object"
                },
                "type": {
                  "const": "http",
                  "type": "string"
                }
              },
              "required": [
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                "method"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            },
            "output": {
              "properties": {
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                  "type": "object"
                },
                "type": {
                  "type": "string"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "type"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "input"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        }
      }
    },
    "lastUpdated": "2026-10-19T13:53:14.646Z",
    "quality": {
      "l30DaysTotalCalls": 2,
      "l30DaysUniquePayers": 2,
      "lastCalledAt": "2026-10-19T13:53:14.016Z"
    },
    "resource": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record",
    "serviceName": "polls.karbach.digital",
    "tags": [
      "elections",
      "germany",
      "polls",
      "politics",
      "bundestag"
    ],
    "type": "http",
    "x402Version": 2
  },
  "source": "x402_bazaar",
  "summary": "Frozen forecasts versus official results, 2026 out of sample and 34-election backtest. Use when asked how reliable these forecasts were in past elections. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours."
}

What the leaf hashes

{"body":"0f92182f6367e183485a5993645a33afce52a0431a50435baecb1586c273c236","id":68105,"kind":"listing","method":"baseline/1","observed_us":1793025466189464,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/track-record","subject_kind":"source_record"}

Proof

Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (296695 rows).

  1. 0x76adf6175b4e60135968c9eae2d0029e73975757bd904a265764ee63cbf91077
  2. 0x2b53b8602451448192f5921ee1b6916810e28017d66cc2ac40665ac22bf7dd2a
  3. 0x2f4d92b8e8a1380caa5928d2a1db68bf96760afe85e70a465f678b6640e6138c
  4. 0x83bdf26fa4858ac40b5c8529ed97abd1b02e7ea06b7c0904182460654d4fec8c
  5. 0xe7fe3fd6ee74074323061d45068d3665ed3f471e32e6f28f8cdd408676beb0d2
  6. 0xdb7c0d0a8aac77bd080b8948095e40d1bbce47d9ca35cff64a26fe0942c9db6a
  7. 0xe8203eba871d4a6ed39a89c667e3a798894796c3eb182ebaf8f1f51880f194eb
  8. 0x42eacf0c2f1325762511e2e4ab7fa6146cbe416b7b2bedc564922527062cf628
  9. 0x12a8628644add05d9c2cce99c77be571b84868246cc33afc7daf5d11fe55b57e
  10. 0xf99eec69e7b273c29cfbdaac6b9d0d445684d8769e059a72e77ed52679165ecc
  11. 0x2b0f6f9a9d5201404fd0cd99316c4ea1c2b3853278de26cb244fc2433c8b6831
  12. 0x8fdfac9874f184de58b63efbdab0fc27674958d741146d02f58b04d3c559cabf
  13. 0xdef3cab0b4070d8ad7f4f91288da4881d19789f131b1b353621df79df04a0617
  14. 0xc4fe2177880ea1b0e82b6fe4c270090fd0fbe5af3a42a8cbf6a6ba2fa35625f6
  15. 0x15039087bf60ae9b06b756ec3cbc299760e59923a438bbd91e34d105186db0ed
  16. 0x2b6e23e3624a1b66e1d2298cfbce99a93ce6b13d24a58112a71802d79c5f7a76
  17. 0xd21942ae3214eff88e08ab04884fd4b11958b51af9a0741b7668e2d07a2c56c9
  18. 0x9a9024edb5069d88a324facb310a5ce8e495214bbaa968f077bede437390194f
  19. 0x9b9ce5b74b9bab5121612ef6b64920a8d453cbf311096a423eef9702747e868a
Day root
0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
Chained
0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
Published
On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae

How to check it · This row as JSON