← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 68102
Observed , by baseline/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/spain/general-2026
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 3254eccd72c2eb924d985edc89f1e7db12d0fb58f2e4502fe5f9a2d7ae88afc7
- Leaf
- 0x0e9a6970e389feab6e6a41088208352575e4148f75c3a6d5eb7433424403e8f2
What was observed
{
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"name": "polls.karbach.digital",
"owner_address": "0x6d8444caed95d9155785da10ac00247948957d61",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
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"version": "2"
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"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x6d8444CaEd95D9155785Da10aC00247948957D61",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Spanish general election 29 Nov 2026: seats per list (median and range), poll average, majority chances. Blackout 24 to 29 Nov (art. 69.7 LOREG). After polls close: official count (seats, vote share, counted percent), forecast for comparison. Use when asked who wins the 2026 Spanish general election, how many seats PP, PSOE or Vox get, or whether PP and Vox reach a majority, or the official result. Source-attributed. Refused (503, not charged) if data is older than 26 hours.",
"extensions": {
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"data": {
"blackout": {
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"from": "2026-11-24T00:00:00+01:00",
"note": "From 24 Nov 2026 00:00 until polls close on 29 Nov 2026 21:00 (Madrid time) this endpoint is unavailable (HTTP 503, nothing is charged). The last forecast be...",
"until": "2026-11-29T21:00:00+01:00"
},
"cis_latest": {
"fallzahl": 0,
"feldende": "0000-00-00",
"institut": "CIS",
"werte": {
"BNG": 0,
"Bildu": 0,
"CC": 0,
"ERC": 0,
"Junts": 0,
"Links": 0,
"PNV": 0,
"PP": 0,
"PSOE": 0,
"Podemos": 0,
"SALF": 0,
"Sumar": 0,
"UPN": 0,
"Vox": 0
}
},
"detail": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/spain/general-2026/provinces",
"election": {
"date": "2026-11-29",
"date_status": "official",
"id": "es-2026",
"majority": 176,
"name": "Spanish general election (Congreso de los Diputados)",
"seat_method": "D'Hondt in each of 52 constituencies, 3 percent threshold per constituency",
"seats": 350,
"status": "upcoming"
},
"lists": [
{
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"modelled_vote_share_pct": 0,
"name": "Adelante Andalucía",
"poll_average_pct": 0,
"seats_90pct_range": [
0,
0
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{
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"modelled_vote_share_pct": 0,
"name": "BNG",
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"seats_90pct_range": [
0,
0
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"seats_mean": 0,
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],
"majority_probability_pct": {
"PP+Vox": 0,
"PP_alone": 0,
"Sanchez_bloc_2023": 0,
"Sanchez_bloc_2023_members": [
"BNG",
"Bildu"
]
},
"polls_used": 0,
"strongest_list_probability_pct": {
"PP": 0,
"PSOE": 0
},
"website": "https://polls.karbach.digital/spanien-2026/"
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": {
"method": "weighted poll average (latest poll per institute, 45 days, half-life 10 days, CIS excluded), proportional swing on the 2023 result per province, Monte Carlo ...",
"simulations": 0
},
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalition figures count simulated seat majorities (see ...",
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"source": {
"blackout": "Spanish electoral law (art. 69.7 LOREG) bans publishing polls from 24 Nov 2026 00:00 until polls close on 29 Nov 2026 (21:00 Madrid time, Canary Islands). Du...",
"license": "CC BY-SA 4.0 (share alike, because the poll compilation is CC BY-SA)",
"polls": "Spanish polling institutes as compiled on en.wikipedia.org (Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election)",
"polls_license": "CC BY-SA 4.0",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)",
"results_2023": "en.wikipedia.org constituency pages (CC BY-SA 4.0)",
"seats_per_constituency": "Real Decreto 806/2026, Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE-A-2026-20742)"
},
"uncertainty": "seats_90pct_range: 90 of 100 simulations fall inside. Error per list about three points for the largest party; in 2023 polls underestimated PSOE by about thr...",
"updated_at": "0000-00-00 00:00"
},
"type": "json"
}
},
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},
"lastUpdated": "2026-10-21T22:08:53.73Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 1,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-10-21T22:08:53.448Z"
},
"resource": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/spain/general-2026",
"serviceName": "polls.karbach.digital",
"tags": [
"elections",
"spain",
"polls",
"politics",
"forecast"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Spanish general election 29 Nov 2026: seats per list (median and range), poll average, majority chances. Blackout 24 to 29 Nov (art. 69.7 LOREG). After polls close: official count (seats, vote share, counted percent), forecast for comparison. Use when asked who wins the 2026 Spanish general election, how many seats PP, PSOE or Vox get, or whether PP and Vox reach a majority, or the official result. Source-attributed. Refused (503, not charged) if data is older than 26 hours."
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"3254eccd72c2eb924d985edc89f1e7db12d0fb58f2e4502fe5f9a2d7ae88afc7","id":68102,"kind":"listing","method":"baseline/1","observed_us":1793025466185803,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/spain/general-2026","subject_kind":"source_record"}Proof
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- Day root
- 0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
- Chained
- 0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae