← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 68069
Observed , by baseline/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/:nr/dossier
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 2b536b63e491f12a511184c3a2a3a872287fd07f3528a4c1d5d3179ec0bb6588
- Leaf
- 0x16bc3bc484e1c1d8047f445ab81999dd64869ea18b37a4fc088be9c65e2f0aa6
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
[
"x402",
"https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/:nr/dossier"
]
],
"name": "polls.karbach.digital",
"owner_address": "0x6d8444caed95d9155785da10ac00247948957d61",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "100000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x6d8444CaEd95D9155785Da10aC00247948957D61",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Everything on one Bundestag constituency in one call: structure data, postcodes, results since 2013, 2029 forecast, direct-mandate chances, its members (committees, speeches, votes), state government and next state election. Use when you need a complete briefing on one German constituency in a single call. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"pathParams": {
"nr": "299"
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"data": {
"constituency": {
"name": "Homburg",
"number": 299,
"postcodes": [
"66280",
"66287"
],
"similar_constituencies": [
{
"bundesland": "SL",
"name": "St. Wendel",
"similarity": 0.982,
"wk_nr": 298
},
{
"bundesland": "SL",
"name": "Saarlouis",
"similarity": 0.978,
"wk_nr": 297
}
],
"state": "SL"
},
"forecast_2029": {
"direct_mandate": {
"expected_margin_points": 6.78,
"favourite": "AfD",
"rating": "sicher",
"win_probability": {
"AfD": 0.6933,
"CDU/CSU": 0.1164,
"FDP": 0,
"Linke": 0.0002,
"SPD": 0.1901
}
},
"second_vote": {
"AfD": {
"ci_high": 36.9,
"ci_low": 27.3,
"pct": 32.1
},
"BSW": {
"ci_high": 5.6,
"ci_low": 2.6,
"pct": 4.1
},
"CDU/CSU": {
"ci_high": 19.9,
"ci_low": 13.9,
"pct": 16.9
},
"FDP": {
"ci_high": 5.5,
"ci_low": 2.5,
"pct": 4
},
"Grüne": {
"ci_high": 11,
"ci_low": 7,
"pct": 9
},
"Linke": {
"ci_high": 10.6,
"ci_low": 6.6,
"pct": 8.6
},
"SPD": {
"ci_high": 21.4,
"ci_low": 15.2,
"pct": 18.3
}
},
"swing_type": "regional"
},
"members_of_bundestag": [
{
"against_party_line": 0,
"committees": [
{},
{}
],
"detail": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/members/esra-limbacher",
"id": 138463,
"latest_speech": {
"datum": "2026-09-08",
"exzerpt": "Sehr geehrter Herr Präsident! Liebe Kolleginnen und Kollegen! Dieser Sommer hat uns allen gezeigt, was Klimawandel ganz konkret bedeutet: extreme Hitze, Dürr...",
"pdf_url": "https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21091.pdf",
"protokoll_nr": "21/91"
},
"mandate": "constituency",
"name": "Esra Limbacher",
"party": "SPD",
"printed_papers_12m": 0,
"roll_call_votes": 22,
"slug": "esra-limbacher",
"speeches_this_period": 25
},
{
"against_party_line": 0,
"committees": [
{},
{}
],
"detail": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/members/michael-moses-arndt",
"id": 183266,
"latest_speech": {
"datum": "2026-10-08",
"exzerpt": "Frau Präsidentin! Kolleginnen und Kollegen! Sehr geehrte Gäste! Heute geht es um eine Petition bezüglich der Gesundheitsversorgung. Es soll die Möglichkeit e...",
"pdf_url": "https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/21/21099.pdf",
"protokoll_nr": "21/99"
},
"mandate": "list",
"name": "Michael „Moses“ Arndt",
"party": "Die Linke",
"printed_papers_12m": 0,
"roll_call_votes": 22,
"slug": "michael-moses-arndt",
"speeches_this_period": 2
}
],
"model_reliability": {
"backtest_34_elections": {
"baseline_poll_avg_5_mae": {
"mean_mae": 1.3,
"n": 34
},
"brier": 0.0711,
"ci95_hit": 96.9,
"mae": 1.27,
"methodology": "v4.16 — punkt=weighted-poll-avg-fenster5 (CLR-sim nur fuer verteilung/CI/sitze/koalitionen; ablation A6/A7 2026-06-10) + per-partei-sigma + party-correlation...",
"n_wahlen": 34,
"updated_at": "2026-10-18 04:30:24",
"winner_correct": 31,
"winner_total": 34
},
"out_of_sample_2026": {
"im_band": 17,
"mae": 2.17,
"sieger": 3,
"slots": 21,
"wahlen": 3
}
},
"results": {
"btw2025": {
"erst": {},
"zweit": {
"AfD": 23.7,
"BSW": 5.8,
"CDU/CSU": 26.1,
"FDP": 4.2,
"Grüne": 6.6,
"Linke": 6.7,
"SPD": 22
}
},
"history": {
"btw2013": {
"erst_pct": {},
"gewaehlt_partei": null,
"waehlende": 142644,
"wahlberechtigt": 198117,
"wahlbeteiligung_pct": 72,
"zweit_pct": {}
},
"btw2017": {
"erst_pct": {},
"gewaehlt_partei": null,
"waehlende": 145992,
"wahlberechtigt": 192410,
"wahlbeteiligung_pct": 75.88,
"zweit_pct": {}
},
"btw2021": {
"erst_pct": {},
"gewaehlt_partei": null,
"waehlende": 142288,
"wahlberechtigt": 185941,
"wahlbeteiligung_pct": 76.52,
"zweit_pct": {}
},
"btw2025": {
"erst_pct": {},
"gewaehlt_partei": "Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands",
"waehlende": 147979,
"wahlberechtigt": 180479,
"wahlbeteiligung_pct": 81.99,
"zweit_pct": {}
}
}
},
"state": {
"government": {
"coalition": "SPD",
"head": "Anke Rehlinger",
"party": "SPD"
},
"next_state_election": {
"data_quality": "grob",
"date": "2027-04-18",
"date_status": "official",
"detail": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/elections/sl-2027",
"election": "sl-2027",
"name": "Landtagswahl Saarland",
"parties": [
{},
{}
]
}
},
"structure": {
"abitur_pct": 32.7,
"alo_quote": 6.6,
"alo_quote_frauen": 5.9,
"alter_60_74_pct": 22.2,
"alter_u18_pct": 15.7,
"auslaender_pct": 13.9,
"bev_dichte": 444.8,
"bip_je_ew": 39444,
"einkommen_je_ew": 23126,
"flaeche_km2": 550.2,
"land": "Saarland",
"pkw_je_1000": 661.6,
"wk_name": "Homburg",
"wk_nr": 299
}
},
"docs": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/",
"model": {
"version": "4.16"
},
"notice": "Scenario analysis based on published opinion polls. Not a prediction and not a voting recommendation. Coalitions are arithmetic majorities only, not statemen...",
"project": "Ein Projekt von Karbach.Digital (https://karbach.digital)",
"source": {
"polls": "dawum.de",
"polls_license": "ODbL 1.0",
"polls_license_url": "https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/",
"processing": "polls.karbach.digital (Max Karbach)"
},
"uncertainty": "Forecasts carry 95 percent bands (ci_low/ci_high, ci95); direct-mandate chances come from simulation. Structure data and past results are official (Bundeswah...",
"updated_at": "2026-10-18T15:28:17.464793"
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"routeTemplate": "/v1/constituencies/:nr/dossier",
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET",
"HEAD",
"DELETE"
],
"type": "string"
},
"pathParams": {
"properties": {
"nr": {
"description": "Bundestag constituency number 1 to 299",
"pattern": "^[1-9][0-9]{0,2}$",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"nr"
],
"type": "object"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
},
"lastUpdated": "2026-10-18T14:17:10.265Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 1,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-10-18T14:17:09.773Z"
},
"resource": "https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/:nr/dossier",
"serviceName": "polls.karbach.digital",
"tags": [
"elections",
"germany",
"polls",
"politics",
"bundestag"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Everything on one Bundestag constituency in one call: structure data, postcodes, results since 2013, 2029 forecast, direct-mandate chances, its members (committees, speeches, votes), state government and next state election. Use when you need a complete briefing on one German constituency in a single call. Source-attributed, German data, updated every six hours."
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"2b536b63e491f12a511184c3a2a3a872287fd07f3528a4c1d5d3179ec0bb6588","id":68069,"kind":"listing","method":"baseline/1","observed_us":1793025466140104,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://api.polls.karbach.digital/v1/constituencies/:nr/dossier","subject_kind":"source_record"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (296695 rows).
- 0x16bbf73af89060f21f1b12f392aeea43d3fad7863e420d50d13e3ba6db67542a
- 0x602486c7f65b526e855d0d751f9535707cc253e3fba4a3425cea102a2b65298f
- 0x94fc7b313784f30e2172612acd1825caa84157eda8114cdd525250b5f169e345
- 0xba79ce5f33f4e78396c41db3487bc5784250047d573264ce61d12830c70e5232
- 0xcc664b1c60ecbaf7eb07c7c2be011e256ad967ed6f14db295b10b64f0f1cc43e
- 0x6ce35145c404a4cc4d42242aecdad1e169ff6f0b65c4705313082798472b5ccd
- 0x9e5f22929ec12cfb88581f8d16aadac5446e9dce0d419b80a3df53276ef92314
- 0xf858ffa86cb9e5d914b614b307402fae70a208d00d53c866c17e37dbd324ea1e
- 0x649aa5cafaafc7d2ca7ec3470d371c71fe05e3286a3aeafcc71734bb93fd3776
- 0x051922b623453bd4bca9a9af0907e733bcc4583746990b8b7f187b87a9891e47
- 0x1ff0b13d2481c9da18eda22ffeb00b1ce27c383301867cb629c19e9a2e4b869a
- 0x856fd0d049baa5f07cd2d5d524b40c994bed22cb46ea15af4cc075b3f3f3d444
- 0x32f46c5f73ecbfd4f770f7f760a79bee2afed4b3e7572fa882b3e7dce8df4356
- 0x770e4376196188c7fc9ec40f8e218dc0d1cb92bba5fe0425a0edce27ca9a997f
- 0x60582ab4b41e72eb70eb0bce07fbf0fb4d2b62a8bad5be50f5d16d511adc746c
- 0xc6a4d7899a0f442958e26505011190b7cff2483611c1b94eba9043e0ba9ac36e
- 0x8c756542e482157df0c36464d75c937b845e4423dbbcfad08f0cf8d5a16b9a13
- 0x20704208aa6923d6b2450ef74ede87a6e0265d46447926038fe9506e9e154b2d
- 0x9b9ce5b74b9bab5121612ef6b64920a8d453cbf311096a423eef9702747e868a
- Day root
- 0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
- Chained
- 0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae