Evidence row 574835

What was observed

{
  "count": 2,
  "tools": [
    {
      "description": "BRING YOUR OWN ES STRATEGY. TEST WHETHER AUCTIONTRACE HELPS MANAGE ITS TRADES BETTER.\n\nWHAT IT IS\n\nFor $5.00 USDC on Base mainnet, AuctionTrace delivers 751,598 validated, timestamped ES Book Pressure observations, a seven-category application map, matched historical evidence, rejected-use guidance, and an accompanying public toolkit for package verification, strict as-of alignment, and matched result comparison. Join the observations strict as-of after entries your strategy already makes; keep entries and baseline behavior fixed.\n\nWHAT THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTS\n\nAcross seven category-specific historical applications, relative profit-factor improvement versus matched price-only management ranged from 2.40% to 26.26%. All seven published AuctionTrace treatment profit factors remained below 1.0, ranging from 0.5130 to 0.9246. The evidence therefore supports better post-entry management versus each matched baseline; it does not establish a profitable standalone system, guarantee profitability, or predict future performance. Six high-sample studies covered 63,350 identical entries and improved all 18 of 18 study windows and all 36 of 36 chronological halves.\n\nWHERE IT WAS TESTED\n\n1. Mean reversion — Use adverse pressure when it contradicts the mean-reversion thesis. PF 0.7882 -> 0.8835 (+12.09%).\n2. Range rotation — De-risk when pressure contradicts the return-to-center thesis. PF 0.6645 -> 0.8390 (+26.26%).\n3. Trend and momentum — Detect early post-entry failure while preserving the original entry. PF 0.8034 -> 0.9246 (+15.09%).\n4. Pullback and retracement — Distinguish pressure consistent with resumption from a failed reclaim. PF 0.7038 -> 0.8054 (+14.44%).\n5. Breakout and continuation — Cut risk when pressure contradicts the breakout while preserving runner logic. PF 0.7195 -> 0.7946 (+10.44%).\n6. Scalping and microstructure — Use immediate adverse pressure to de-risk short-horizon trades. PF 0.5010 -> 0.5130 (+2.40%).\n7. Reversal and exhaustion — Select which stopped trades merit an opposite-side child instead of reversing every stop. PF 0.6043 -> 0.7321 (+21.15%).\n\nEach application is category-specific. AuctionTrace is a finished signal family with documented applications, not one immutable trading rule reused across every strategy.\n\nWHAT $5 DELIVERS\n\nThe private ZIP is the immutable Release 008 six-file package: data.csv, the complete machine-readable AgentOffer, the seven-category playbook, a strict-as-of quickstart scaffold, a README, and a hash manifest. Public companion tools at /buyer-kit/README.md add package verification and matched baseline-versus-treatment comparison without exposing AuctionTrace construction logic or private treatment rules. The data is bar agnostic for consumption and covers 2025-07-29T22:00:00.1320000Z through 2026-07-01T00:00:00.0000000Z exclusive.\n\nNEXT DECISION\n\nIf your task, ES market, strategy category, coverage, evidence, payment constraints, and budget fit, purchase the $5 package and run the matched evaluation under your own risk policy. Read the complete evidence, category statuses, host scopes, limitations, rejected uses, package contract, and evaluation steps at /agent-offer.json. Purchase at /api/v1/datasets/auctiontrace-es-book-pressure-20250729-20260630-v1/access.",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
        "properties": {},
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "get_auctiontrace_product"
    },
    {
      "description": "Submit private, optional feedback about the current AuctionTrace offer.\n\nDiscovery\n---------\nCall get_auctiontrace_product and read agent_offer.questionnaire before submitting.\nThe HTTP equivalent and complete contract are at /api/v1/offer-feedback/schema.\n\nWhen to use\n-----------\n- Tell the owner what task you are performing and what you were looking for.\n- Explain what is useful, unclear, undesirable, missing, or blocking purchase.\n- Request owner follow-up without purchasing.\n\nDo / Don't\n----------\nDo provide a stable submission_id so retries are idempotent.\nDo select the closest enumerated values and use free text only for additional context.\nDon't include credentials, payment signatures, private keys, proprietary strategy formulas, private addresses, local paths, or sensitive personal data.\n\nIdempotency\n-----------\nRetrying the same submission_id from the same anonymous client returns the existing receipt.",
      "inputSchema": {
        "$schema": "http://json-schema.org/draft-07/schema#",
        "additionalProperties": false,
        "properties": {
          "responses": {
            "additionalProperties": false,
            "properties": {
              "attracted_by": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "finished_data",
                    "mathematical_evidence",
                    "category_specific_heuristics",
                    "integration_code",
                    "bar_agnostic_contract",
                    "supported_and_rejected_uses",
                    "low_acquisition_cost",
                    "es_income_opportunity",
                    "other"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 9,
                "type": "array"
              },
              "dislikes": {
                "maxLength": 2000,
                "minLength": 1,
                "type": "string"
              },
              "es_status": {
                "enum": [
                  "trades_es_now",
                  "researching_es",
                  "does_not_trade_es",
                  "not_applicable"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "follow_up_contact": {
                "additionalProperties": false,
                "properties": {
                  "method": {
                    "enum": [
                      "email",
                      "https_url",
                      "agent_identifier"
                    ],
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "value": {
                    "maxLength": 500,
                    "minLength": 1,
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "required": [
                  "method",
                  "value"
                ],
                "type": "object"
              },
              "follow_up_requested": {
                "default": false,
                "type": "boolean"
              },
              "information_needed": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "sample_rows",
                    "full_schema",
                    "methodology",
                    "additional_evidence",
                    "integration_example",
                    "licensing_terms",
                    "payment_instructions",
                    "delivery_security",
                    "support_response",
                    "other",
                    "none"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 11,
                "type": "array"
              },
              "likes": {
                "maxLength": 2000,
                "minLength": 1,
                "type": "string"
              },
              "missing": {
                "maxLength": 2000,
                "minLength": 1,
                "type": "string"
              },
              "objective": {
                "maxLength": 1000,
                "minLength": 1,
                "type": "string"
              },
              "principal_mandate": {
                "enum": [
                  "develop_trading_strategies",
                  "test_trading_strategies",
                  "deploy_trading_strategies",
                  "manage_trading_strategies",
                  "manage_trading_risk",
                  "evaluate_income_opportunities",
                  "research_market_data",
                  "other"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "purchase_blockers": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "no_payment_capability",
                    "unclear_value",
                    "insufficient_evidence",
                    "data_format",
                    "coverage",
                    "integration_effort",
                    "does_not_trade_es",
                    "needs_live_data",
                    "price",
                    "licensing",
                    "security_or_compliance",
                    "principal_policy",
                    "trust",
                    "other",
                    "none"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 15,
                "type": "array"
              },
              "purchase_intent": {
                "enum": [
                  "purchased",
                  "likely_to_purchase",
                  "considering",
                  "unlikely_to_purchase",
                  "will_not_purchase",
                  "not_applicable"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "question_for_owner": {
                "maxLength": 2000,
                "minLength": 1,
                "type": "string"
              },
              "strategy_categories": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "mean_reversion",
                    "range_rotation",
                    "trend_momentum",
                    "pullback_retracement",
                    "breakout_continuation",
                    "scalping_microstructure",
                    "reversal_exhaustion",
                    "other",
                    "not_applicable"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 9,
                "type": "array"
              },
              "valuable_components": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "finished_data",
                    "category_specific_applications",
                    "matched_evidence",
                    "rejected_use_map",
                    "quickstart_code",
                    "evaluation_procedure",
                    "integrity_manifest",
                    "human_support",
                    "other"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 10,
                "type": "array"
              },
              "workflow_roles": {
                "default": [],
                "items": {
                  "enum": [
                    "develop",
                    "test",
                    "deploy",
                    "manage",
                    "risk_control",
                    "evaluate_purchase",
                    "other"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "maxItems": 7,
                "type": "array"
              }
            },
            "required": [
              "objective",
              "principal_mandate",
              "purchase_intent"
            ],
            "type": "object"
          },
          "schema_version": {
            "const": "auctiontrace_offer_feedback_submission_v1",
            "type": "string"
          },
          "stage": {
            "default": "pre_purchase",
            "enum": [
              "pre_purchase",
              "post_purchase"
            ],
            "type": "string"
          },
          "submission_id": {
            "maxLength": 128,
            "minLength": 8,
            "pattern": "^[A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._:-]*$",
            "type": "string"
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "schema_version",
          "responses"
        ],
        "type": "object"
      },
      "name": "submit_auctiontrace_offer_feedback"
    }
  ]
}

What the leaf hashes

{"body":"27ad481a9ca56ac45eae80c6c716fae9fa2393a04edf94e7a3e7bb4ff875d636","id":574835,"kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","observed_us":1793141833193779,"prev":null,"subject":"d563fdce-4129-427a-9cf9-b2333655a896","subject_kind":"endpoint"}

Proof

Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of 2026-10-27 (273461 rows).

1. 0x0ef85538d0321e1ef1b5780a33eca3025b511f9d1af78a8f2c83fdad8780c65c
2. 0xc98e8679a07b4925b8ec9b789b66cc590d3cef964737e55237880fde876be6cb
3. 0xd4780fd7eda51c07d79b5d5b3d644bd49840ec40cc431035e9984214ca2f257e
4. 0xb2647ddcf35519f445a41567e36af018f73dc84a8d4be9a5d8691ce13f483946
5. 0xa8819950b5531e4e073d7fec6ea4754676937b3209e2cac1111d99cb42cd363b
6. 0x616513904b4caee553122cd6e680b1345fa71282ad5979fb3e7642043d58e45b
7. 0x1fef6b9f68cd35a825c2708fe621aa26c3eb06ff0da2c2837e12de1b45c9da9b
8. 0x9075bf917edb166fc9d6fc05ccee5da1b33dc52f9dde4c833ba7d954d169c3c2
9. 0x3be92d769301d52a806024dfe3d96f9014acc04d25ff8567e506cb37812a8041
10. 0x3324226ef6439ba555d292fabbb2b6297d76704172ae3e5401de83f038382a74
11. 0xeaa85500d1d950bbc5368f8c449457f4c36bb01a9a460f0c2aedbe49bdc0e2a3
12. 0x7cd06df307fe3d7d57464d35c7dee68ec2e0c9035898fd7f919c08ed5fd0a5fb
13. 0xa5d3d95b495ae2191612e64fe151fe065497e5ecb73bb111e1fabb6b3628f3de
14. 0x3e0ec8a2a8a954695a9b53a4a48a7656d7e3fd6a8795c73b49e2ef05b201ec3f
15. 0x2cf27e8a181d60d0dd27c186c2eddfcbb4e8fa71cf66feeb55a4d730e15ee8c4
16. 0x518b93854db03dc9fc938883abf30da6eaae5ae0d4336903968fd32a7df8c71b
17. 0x22c1fb9487ee0b9732fa017a0cc321eb27a60c08450d112f755089796e12cb1c
18. 0xa20d48798a34aba12eb9c7297722982d910f06c148f5e27ac59307422964a585
19. 0x9fc354c0ea3efc3f1b6548bb77ea902a50f2c9647647ea61592efce2bd795699

Day root

0xdd77e5e99da32c3f154180d63e3c3e6fe11e896a2c6896412ef6b5c4bcf7e795

Chained

0x23bb4dfd09f55c15ac3962f53578e02c6114d5bfd9bb451cf8794fb6e2817ef4

Published

On Arc Testnet, block 69414147: 0xb2ebd83aafeb765a0ce66e76aefb133ed06606c98038fd56191e2bcd1dcb77b4