← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 573895
Observed , by probe.mcp/1.
- Kind
- mcp.tools
- About
- endpoint cf21dfc0-c1cb-45fd-8dfe-76ed2cf59ab4
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- b7b779bd0a99220bae8c7d18044a217a591f5c5d4610e63dc93627be150a16bf
- Leaf
- 0xcc8c02d3ee1bc10886d69bd4c2956bb6463b5ac139c15ca27c3487209b938634
What was observed
{
"count": 4,
"tools": [
{
"description": "List the market-condition factors Regimen slices performance by, with units, the upstream operation each is read from, and how it is bucketed. Call this when you need to know which factor keys exist or how to explain a bucket to a user. Takes no arguments, reaches no network, never changes.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "regimen_describe_factors"
},
{
"description": "Answer whether a trading strategy’s measured performance is distinguishable from luck. Returns the Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio (the probability the true Sharpe beats a benchmark, corrected for sample length, skew and fat tails), a bootstrap confidence interval, and the Minimum Track Record Length — how long the record would have to run before the claim could be made at all. Use this whenever someone quotes a Sharpe ratio, a win rate or a return and you need to know whether the number means anything. It will frequently say the evidence is too thin; that is the intended answer, not a failure.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"benchmarkSharpe": {
"default": 0,
"description": "Per-period Sharpe the record must beat. 0 asks only whether there is any edge at all.",
"type": "number"
},
"confidence": {
"default": 0.95,
"exclusiveMaximum": 1,
"exclusiveMinimum": 0.5,
"type": "number"
},
"detail": {
"default": "concise",
"description": "concise returns the verdict, the headline statistics and the reasoning — enough to answer a user. full adds every bucket, every dropped point and the complete provenance list, and is much larger.",
"enum": [
"concise",
"full"
],
"type": "string"
},
"selector": {
"description": "Which track record to analyse.",
"properties": {
"source": {
"description": "olaxbt-nexus analyses the strategy bound to this connection’s API key. inline analyses an equity curve you supply directly, from any venue or backtest.",
"enum": [
"olaxbt-nexus",
"inline"
],
"type": "string"
},
"symbol": {
"description": "For olaxbt-nexus: the market the strategy trades, used for point-in-time reads. Default BTC/USDT.",
"maxLength": 32,
"minLength": 3,
"type": "string"
},
"trackRecord": {
"description": "Required when source is inline.",
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "The equity curve, one point per period. Order does not matter; it is sorted by timestamp.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "Account equity at that instant, in any single consistent unit.",
"exclusiveMinimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"t": {
"description": "Epoch milliseconds, epoch seconds, or an ISO 8601 timestamp. UTC is assumed.",
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
}
},
"required": [
"t",
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"minItems": 2,
"type": "array"
},
"label": {
"default": "inline-track-record",
"description": "A name for this track record, echoed back in results. Do not put anything sensitive here.",
"maxLength": 80,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"reportedSharpe": {
"description": "Optional. The Sharpe ratio you believe this track record has, so Regimen can contrast it with its own.",
"type": "number"
},
"trades": {
"items": {
"properties": {
"entryPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitReason": {
"maxLength": 120,
"type": "string"
},
"exitedAt": {
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
},
"holdingBars": {
"maximum": 9007199254740991,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"pnl": {
"description": "Realised profit or loss for the closed trade, in the equity unit.",
"type": "number"
},
"symbol": {
"maxLength": 64,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"pnl"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 20000,
"type": "array"
}
},
"required": [
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"source"
],
"type": "object"
},
"trialSharpes": {
"description": "Per-period Sharpe ratios of other configurations tried for this strategy. Supplying them enables the Deflated Sharpe Ratio, which discounts the headline for how many variants were tested before this one was reported.",
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 500,
"type": "array"
}
},
"required": [
"selector"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "regimen_evaluate_track_record"
},
{
"description": "Break a strategy’s returns down by the market conditions that held on each date — volatility, funding, open interest, positioning, sentiment, trend state — and report performance per bucket. Each factor also gets a permutation test: the observed best-to-worst spread is compared against spreads produced by randomly reshuffling the regime labels, so a flattering subset cannot pass itself off as a regime effect. Use this after regimen_evaluate_track_record when you need to know WHERE an edge comes from, or whether it is a bet on conditions that could end.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"detail": {
"default": "concise",
"description": "concise returns the verdict, the headline statistics and the reasoning — enough to answer a user. full adds every bucket, every dropped point and the complete provenance list, and is much larger.",
"enum": [
"concise",
"full"
],
"type": "string"
},
"maxDates": {
"default": 45,
"description": "How many of the most recent dates to read conditions for, bounded by the upstream rate limit.",
"maximum": 45,
"minimum": 5,
"type": "integer"
},
"minSample": {
"default": 15,
"description": "Buckets below this many observations are returned but flagged unusable.",
"maximum": 500,
"minimum": 5,
"type": "integer"
},
"selector": {
"description": "Which track record to analyse.",
"properties": {
"source": {
"description": "olaxbt-nexus analyses the strategy bound to this connection’s API key. inline analyses an equity curve you supply directly, from any venue or backtest.",
"enum": [
"olaxbt-nexus",
"inline"
],
"type": "string"
},
"symbol": {
"description": "For olaxbt-nexus: the market the strategy trades, used for point-in-time reads. Default BTC/USDT.",
"maxLength": 32,
"minLength": 3,
"type": "string"
},
"trackRecord": {
"description": "Required when source is inline.",
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "The equity curve, one point per period. Order does not matter; it is sorted by timestamp.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "Account equity at that instant, in any single consistent unit.",
"exclusiveMinimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"t": {
"description": "Epoch milliseconds, epoch seconds, or an ISO 8601 timestamp. UTC is assumed.",
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
}
},
"required": [
"t",
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"minItems": 2,
"type": "array"
},
"label": {
"default": "inline-track-record",
"description": "A name for this track record, echoed back in results. Do not put anything sensitive here.",
"maxLength": 80,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"reportedSharpe": {
"description": "Optional. The Sharpe ratio you believe this track record has, so Regimen can contrast it with its own.",
"type": "number"
},
"trades": {
"items": {
"properties": {
"entryPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitReason": {
"maxLength": 120,
"type": "string"
},
"exitedAt": {
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
},
"holdingBars": {
"maximum": 9007199254740991,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"pnl": {
"description": "Realised profit or loss for the closed trade, in the equity unit.",
"type": "number"
},
"symbol": {
"maxLength": 64,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"pnl"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 20000,
"type": "array"
}
},
"required": [
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"source"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"selector"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "regimen_regime_map"
},
{
"description": "Run Regimen’s own analysis against controls whose answer is known in advance: the strategy’s returns with the edge mathematically removed, and a simulated population of strategies with no edge at all. Returns whether the engine correctly found nothing in them, and where the real strategy’s confidence sits among pure-luck strategies of the same length and volatility. Use this when a user is entitled to ask why they should believe the verdict, or before quoting a result as evidence.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"selector": {
"description": "Which track record to analyse.",
"properties": {
"source": {
"description": "olaxbt-nexus analyses the strategy bound to this connection’s API key. inline analyses an equity curve you supply directly, from any venue or backtest.",
"enum": [
"olaxbt-nexus",
"inline"
],
"type": "string"
},
"symbol": {
"description": "For olaxbt-nexus: the market the strategy trades, used for point-in-time reads. Default BTC/USDT.",
"maxLength": 32,
"minLength": 3,
"type": "string"
},
"trackRecord": {
"description": "Required when source is inline.",
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "The equity curve, one point per period. Order does not matter; it is sorted by timestamp.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"equity": {
"description": "Account equity at that instant, in any single consistent unit.",
"exclusiveMinimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"t": {
"description": "Epoch milliseconds, epoch seconds, or an ISO 8601 timestamp. UTC is assumed.",
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
}
},
"required": [
"t",
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 10000,
"minItems": 2,
"type": "array"
},
"label": {
"default": "inline-track-record",
"description": "A name for this track record, echoed back in results. Do not put anything sensitive here.",
"maxLength": 80,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"reportedSharpe": {
"description": "Optional. The Sharpe ratio you believe this track record has, so Regimen can contrast it with its own.",
"type": "number"
},
"trades": {
"items": {
"properties": {
"entryPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitPrice": {
"type": "number"
},
"exitReason": {
"maxLength": 120,
"type": "string"
},
"exitedAt": {
"type": [
"number",
"string"
]
},
"holdingBars": {
"maximum": 9007199254740991,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"pnl": {
"description": "Realised profit or loss for the closed trade, in the equity unit.",
"type": "number"
},
"symbol": {
"maxLength": 64,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"pnl"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 20000,
"type": "array"
}
},
"required": [
"equity"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"source"
],
"type": "object"
},
"simulations": {
"default": 1000,
"maximum": 10000,
"minimum": 100,
"type": "integer"
}
},
"required": [
"selector"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "regimen_self_attack"
}
]
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"b7b779bd0a99220bae8c7d18044a217a591f5c5d4610e63dc93627be150a16bf","id":573895,"kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","observed_us":1793141333465606,"prev":null,"subject":"cf21dfc0-c1cb-45fd-8dfe-76ed2cf59ab4","subject_kind":"endpoint"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (273461 rows).
- 0xcc8c76c22b6dda68724b9fa96bafd63675d15978bd34b9057e6ac0a64ff3dd48
- 0x165997e8b2e575864e408bc34fcc5f949807b170d9496cb6081a102d8af60af4
- 0x409ed0b7da2c84aeaadcaf7f05837c18417a03bf367f5de45b9b859e036f3a02
- 0xba3ab0b8a2ae32bdee3c8e0d99584a9e8562641f77b41b3b0e91ca88f86c8dce
- 0x0d1033a52eedc785a635c7c1ee9a329a7aefcbf0aaf42bc7738306430857c601
- 0x71c48f490bd86e79ef0abfe80debe186988791525df7a30e15b110e5ef263ff2
- 0xecfadd8fb548ec9df59016c2f475359d45a0e10e771998761dfee4c70f338b70
- 0x66e839354988c80fa75fc2df7415dc77db5bc385dd9cf39c07bae309f8c9f9d3
- 0xac15dafbec928364e6fbd32eb26e80422c838965fb1805b543360fdf64e1329d
- 0x6903dfc6a8eef68f78bd5dca209fb04016ed07e4688163fadd127d834549d06e
- 0x4eb72d2edb3b063d190586d64965ee7a33e28b4ffbc292fb4be0995ba6f8daa5
- 0x6c0803f2d7123e0bcd2a148e9fde0f429f31dc964ced287e760ee656fcd9912f
- 0xeb77e9d1884bf470f4a13a5869956a83ac37957112a29ccb9e63ddf7791b5a0b
- 0xcc49fd573532e5a29f5be4033f62a2eff71456c020bd2258312b98e95cfe301e
- 0x969cd44e5a4e8dc3110540398fbf689659eb51df735c1cda5d8f021ef9ff5683
- 0xa94627de1af0e823832e05a9069b304ecccb8c0cdb8f9cfc4f2039bfb9799dc5
- 0xdf1105afdc109de3c09a98fc8a3864159ad964e6f49b635c105a27a1e1f14310
- 0x2bf8151e5f157dd183b9de6fa00469551932a7a6e3f33a694895000ac9061197
- 0x9fc354c0ea3efc3f1b6548bb77ea902a50f2c9647647ea61592efce2bd795699
- Day root
- 0xdd77e5e99da32c3f154180d63e3c3e6fe11e896a2c6896412ef6b5c4bcf7e795
- Chained
- 0x23bb4dfd09f55c15ac3962f53578e02c6114d5bfd9bb451cf8794fb6e2817ef4
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69414147: 0xb2ebd83aafeb765a0ce66e76aefb133ed06606c98038fd56191e2bcd1dcb77b4