← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 537516
Observed , by probe.mcp/1.
- Kind
- mcp.tools
- About
- endpoint 5b8b145e-8042-4c85-9955-61cbd0e940be
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 65f706054f417c4b4d3888963d53d3bdafb0019070775afb6a0fdd7fbb4631db
- Leaf
- 0x8e94c70170df08b646533ba1e9e16aa250ac48d33f234f3383c56bfd3a8dcf1e
What was observed
{
"count": 3,
"tools": [
{
"description": "List the six built-in business presets (excavation and septic, plumbing and drain, heating and cooling, landscaping and snow, roofing, and a general small services business) with every default input in the exact field names a simulation accepts, and the revenue, costs and profit each makes at its own averages. Static reference: no network access.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "list_presets"
},
{
"description": "Test nine single changes a small business owner can make and rank them by how much each lowers the chance of running short of money in the next 52 weeks, with the change in year-end money as a tiebreak. The levers: take a third up front, take 15 days off payment terms, raise prices 5 percent, take a fifth less owner draw for six months, cut overhead 10 percent, raise the credit line by half, run one crew lighter, add a crew, and buy three more enquiries a week. Each lever and the baseline run 3,000 simulated years with the same seed, so the difference is the lever and not the luck. Takes the same business description as a cash year simulation: a preset plus any overridden inputs. Pure arithmetic: no network access, nothing stored.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"bad_debt_rate": {
"description": "Share of invoiced balances never collected, as a fraction.",
"maximum": 0.5,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"close_rate": {
"description": "Share of enquiries that become jobs, as a fraction.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"collection_shape": {
"description": "How disciplined customers are about paying on time: 2 is ragged with a long tail of late payers, 6 is disciplined.",
"maximum": 20,
"minimum": 0.5,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_apr": {
"description": "Annual interest on the drawn balance, as a fraction. 0.11 is 11 percent.",
"maximum": 0.6,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_drawn": {
"description": "How much of the line is already drawn, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_line": {
"description": "Size of the line of credit, in dollars. 0 for none.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"crew_cost_weekly": {
"description": "Fully loaded weekly cost of one crew: wages, burden, fuel, vehicle.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"crews": {
"description": "Crews (or technicians, or production units) working in parallel. One crew delivers one crew-week a week.",
"maximum": 50,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"fixed_costs": {
"description": "Monthly fixed bills such as rent, insurance and equipment notes. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"amount": {
"description": "Monthly amount in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"day": {
"description": "Day of the month it leaves the account, 1 to 28.",
"maximum": 28,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"label": {
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"label",
"amount",
"day"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 20,
"type": "array"
},
"job_types": {
"description": "The kinds of work sold. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"crew_weeks": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of capacity one job uses. 0.5 is half a crew for a week.",
"maximum": 200,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"crew_weeks_cv": {
"default": 0.3,
"description": "Spread of the work per job. Default 0.3.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"deposit_pct": {
"description": "Deposit taken when the job is won, as a fraction of the invoice. 1 means paid in full up front.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"materials_pct": {
"description": "Materials and subcontractors as a fraction of the invoice, paid when the job starts.",
"maximum": 0.95,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"name": {
"description": "What the job is called, for example \"Service call\".",
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"share": {
"description": "Relative share of jobs won that are this kind. Shares are normalised, so 6 and 2 means three of these for every one of the other.",
"maximum": 1000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"terms_days": {
"description": "Average days until the balance is paid after the job is done. 0 means paid on completion.",
"maximum": 180,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"value": {
"description": "Average invoice for this job, in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "number"
},
"value_cv": {
"default": 0.4,
"description": "Spread of the invoice, 0.4 means give or take 40 percent. Default 0.4.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"name",
"share",
"value",
"crew_weeks",
"materials_pct",
"deposit_pct",
"terms_days"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"minItems": 1,
"type": "array"
},
"leads_cv": {
"description": "Week to week spread of enquiries. Default 0.35.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"leads_per_week": {
"description": "Enquiries in an average week before seasonality.",
"maximum": 500,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"name": {
"description": "Business name, used only to label the result.",
"maxLength": 120,
"type": "string"
},
"opening_backlog_weeks": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of work already sold and waiting to start.",
"maximum": 104,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"opening_receivables": {
"description": "Work already invoiced and not yet paid on day one, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"overhead_weekly": {
"description": "Weekly overhead that runs whether or not anyone works: office, software, admin wages.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"owner_draw_weekly": {
"description": "What the owner takes out each week.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"preset": {
"default": "general",
"description": "Starting template: excavation, plumbing, hvac, landscaping, roofing, or general for any other small services business. Every field below overrides it. Default general.",
"enum": [
"excavation",
"plumbing",
"hvac",
"landscaping",
"roofing",
"general"
],
"type": "string"
},
"seasonality": {
"description": "Twelve multipliers on enquiry volume, January first. 1 is an average month.",
"items": {
"maximum": 5,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"minItems": 12,
"type": "array"
},
"seed": {
"description": "Seed for the random draws. The same inputs and seed always return the same answer. Default \"dry-run\".",
"maxLength": 64,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"start_cash": {
"description": "Money in the bank on the day the year starts, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": -10000000,
"type": "number"
},
"start_month": {
"description": "Month the simulated year starts, 1 for January. Default: the current month.",
"maximum": 12,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"surprises": {
"description": "Random setbacks such as a machine breakdown or someone quitting. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"capacity_loss": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of capacity lost each time it happens.",
"maximum": 50,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"cost": {
"description": "What it costs each time, in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"label": {
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"weekly_prob": {
"description": "Chance it happens in any given week, for example 0.03.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"label",
"weekly_prob",
"cost",
"capacity_loss"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"type": "array"
},
"tax_rate": {
"description": "Share of profit set aside for tax, paid quarterly.",
"maximum": 0.6,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "rank_levers"
},
{
"description": "Simulate the next 52 weeks of a small services business 10,000 times (Monte Carlo) and report the chance it runs short of money, the week that is most likely to happen, reachable money (bank balance plus unused credit) week by week at the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile, the drivers that separated the futures that ran short from the ones that survived, and the profit the business makes at its own averages. Start from a trade preset (excavation, plumbing, hvac, landscaping, roofing, or general) and override any input: cash, credit line, money owed to the business, work already sold, crews and their weekly cost, overhead, owner draw, monthly bills, enquiries, close rate, seasonality, job types with value, materials, deposit and payment terms, bad debt, tax, and random setbacks. Money is in dollars and rates are fractions (0.3 is 30 percent). The same inputs and seed always return the same answer. Pure arithmetic: no network access, nothing stored.",
"inputSchema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"bad_debt_rate": {
"description": "Share of invoiced balances never collected, as a fraction.",
"maximum": 0.5,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"close_rate": {
"description": "Share of enquiries that become jobs, as a fraction.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"collection_shape": {
"description": "How disciplined customers are about paying on time: 2 is ragged with a long tail of late payers, 6 is disciplined.",
"maximum": 20,
"minimum": 0.5,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_apr": {
"description": "Annual interest on the drawn balance, as a fraction. 0.11 is 11 percent.",
"maximum": 0.6,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_drawn": {
"description": "How much of the line is already drawn, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"credit_line": {
"description": "Size of the line of credit, in dollars. 0 for none.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"crew_cost_weekly": {
"description": "Fully loaded weekly cost of one crew: wages, burden, fuel, vehicle.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"crews": {
"description": "Crews (or technicians, or production units) working in parallel. One crew delivers one crew-week a week.",
"maximum": 50,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"fixed_costs": {
"description": "Monthly fixed bills such as rent, insurance and equipment notes. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"amount": {
"description": "Monthly amount in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"day": {
"description": "Day of the month it leaves the account, 1 to 28.",
"maximum": 28,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"label": {
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"label",
"amount",
"day"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 20,
"type": "array"
},
"job_types": {
"description": "The kinds of work sold. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"crew_weeks": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of capacity one job uses. 0.5 is half a crew for a week.",
"maximum": 200,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"crew_weeks_cv": {
"default": 0.3,
"description": "Spread of the work per job. Default 0.3.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"deposit_pct": {
"description": "Deposit taken when the job is won, as a fraction of the invoice. 1 means paid in full up front.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"materials_pct": {
"description": "Materials and subcontractors as a fraction of the invoice, paid when the job starts.",
"maximum": 0.95,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"name": {
"description": "What the job is called, for example \"Service call\".",
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"share": {
"description": "Relative share of jobs won that are this kind. Shares are normalised, so 6 and 2 means three of these for every one of the other.",
"maximum": 1000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"terms_days": {
"description": "Average days until the balance is paid after the job is done. 0 means paid on completion.",
"maximum": 180,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"value": {
"description": "Average invoice for this job, in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "number"
},
"value_cv": {
"default": 0.4,
"description": "Spread of the invoice, 0.4 means give or take 40 percent. Default 0.4.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"name",
"share",
"value",
"crew_weeks",
"materials_pct",
"deposit_pct",
"terms_days"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"minItems": 1,
"type": "array"
},
"leads_cv": {
"description": "Week to week spread of enquiries. Default 0.35.",
"maximum": 2,
"minimum": 0.01,
"type": "number"
},
"leads_per_week": {
"description": "Enquiries in an average week before seasonality.",
"maximum": 500,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"name": {
"description": "Business name, used only to label the result.",
"maxLength": 120,
"type": "string"
},
"opening_backlog_weeks": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of work already sold and waiting to start.",
"maximum": 104,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"opening_receivables": {
"description": "Work already invoiced and not yet paid on day one, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"overhead_weekly": {
"description": "Weekly overhead that runs whether or not anyone works: office, software, admin wages.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"owner_draw_weekly": {
"description": "What the owner takes out each week.",
"maximum": 1000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"preset": {
"default": "general",
"description": "Starting template: excavation, plumbing, hvac, landscaping, roofing, or general for any other small services business. Every field below overrides it. Default general.",
"enum": [
"excavation",
"plumbing",
"hvac",
"landscaping",
"roofing",
"general"
],
"type": "string"
},
"seasonality": {
"description": "Twelve multipliers on enquiry volume, January first. 1 is an average month.",
"items": {
"maximum": 5,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"minItems": 12,
"type": "array"
},
"seed": {
"description": "Seed for the random draws. The same inputs and seed always return the same answer. Default \"dry-run\".",
"maxLength": 64,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"start_cash": {
"description": "Money in the bank on the day the year starts, in dollars.",
"maximum": 100000000,
"minimum": -10000000,
"type": "number"
},
"start_month": {
"description": "Month the simulated year starts, 1 for January. Default: the current month.",
"maximum": 12,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"surprises": {
"description": "Random setbacks such as a machine breakdown or someone quitting. Replaces the preset list.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"capacity_loss": {
"description": "Crew-weeks of capacity lost each time it happens.",
"maximum": 50,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"cost": {
"description": "What it costs each time, in dollars.",
"maximum": 10000000,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"label": {
"maxLength": 60,
"minLength": 1,
"type": "string"
},
"weekly_prob": {
"description": "Chance it happens in any given week, for example 0.03.",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"label",
"weekly_prob",
"cost",
"capacity_loss"
],
"type": "object"
},
"maxItems": 12,
"type": "array"
},
"tax_rate": {
"description": "Share of profit set aside for tax, paid quarterly.",
"maximum": 0.6,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "simulate_cash_year"
}
]
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"65f706054f417c4b4d3888963d53d3bdafb0019070775afb6a0fdd7fbb4631db","id":537516,"kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","observed_us":1793128990452602,"prev":null,"subject":"5b8b145e-8042-4c85-9955-61cbd0e940be","subject_kind":"endpoint"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (273461 rows).
- 0x8e94ed854ac649b963fd410f1aa0782e67068661ffb8a7a183d33093f96d8bbd
- 0xe145ac91b3dbddfee577a9ae9b32d6712061e9a87d1fd6a1c4e583e11423ebe0
- 0x0e9a610cffa7b45ab3400d9b082022fe12dee8110a7cf8ec10300a0398bf415b
- 0x4c639f415150ce1a0237ec5ffaf11e878057bb22f0bfe7be20ea8222dd24e3a0
- 0xee443a58240fb523a5436abe9c70faa6bd071a49d3295d177f3debdd54a5cce2
- 0xab15380258b2ac1df2726a37f2f7995063528f7895f20a6563f9e755d95b7908
- 0xe5e7c9e1302638d1b17870f7d6ae506a639d2f59a91895b24379962bd1d6e447
- 0x8813d2aaf5c583822a7f83e2b65751937c525414edb66599bb05557434911557
- 0x5461e3db124e661b83e16c33a9afb7c6507c0a825cc5ca8a575f56912f8a14ef
- 0x82a1b5b7b16a6a11c53f4b84b2d8911e534634b6f4cb9715dbe70c4f33116a52
- 0x5d0dfc183bf4faa332fcfb11ba54acfc81c21a52f31b623cbcf436e9be1faf44
- 0xe0e69ccf3eae9f1603c5f7e4a938a5ebe41708a9b4f6cb15a530b2e2aa69d8a0
- 0xea3d566bf95ca7a3a7f6de9c4f77180bd8c5ffd160486a27d870e8a2fb6d0b9e
- 0x06e3b43165f5b3c31d850bc32f20b2e25b844564c4e042c141b9748c26a5a600
- 0xb4f7223140c8a36cb87a63d77cf617086d9968dc4658f03e102571ebe06e9ed6
- 0xfecf3d4646dd4984a13dd715499e842c3fde63692336d97394c2bfd8e877ca5d
- 0xf30fddbf4811226c58e8f0daf36fddd79fc5f1356b592bb1d99a8061ddbabe66
- 0x2bf8151e5f157dd183b9de6fa00469551932a7a6e3f33a694895000ac9061197
- 0x9fc354c0ea3efc3f1b6548bb77ea902a50f2c9647647ea61592efce2bd795699
- Day root
- 0xdd77e5e99da32c3f154180d63e3c3e6fe11e896a2c6896412ef6b5c4bcf7e795
- Chained
- 0x23bb4dfd09f55c15ac3962f53578e02c6114d5bfd9bb451cf8794fb6e2817ef4
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69414147: 0xb2ebd83aafeb765a0ce66e76aefb133ed06606c98038fd56191e2bcd1dcb77b4