← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 237164
Observed , by probe.mcp/1.
- Kind
- mcp.tools
- About
- endpoint f7b989a3-981a-40fe-8da6-6fe93623e7eb
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 03854dd049474cf6baec9c59b7ae1ae8a3c7da1285f172c3423ac96861aada0f
- Leaf
- 0x7a16e99ec1ace4742bab4c4609bb2635ac04382a316508d33002e1daa6b95555
What was observed
{
"count": 11,
"tools": [
{
"description": "Cross-venue arbitrage, buying YES on one venue and NO on another so one leg always pays, with net edge per contract after modelled fees, ROI and available size. Without a PRO plan, results beyond a short preview cost $0.01 per call from the caller's prepaid credit; callers without credit see the preview.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"confidence": {
"description": "Match confidence filter",
"enum": [
"HIGH",
"MEDIUM"
],
"type": "string"
},
"limit": {
"description": "Max results (default 20)",
"type": "integer"
},
"minEdge": {
"description": "Minimum net edge per contract in dollars (default 0)",
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "find_arbitrage"
},
{
"description": "Propositions matched across venues with each venue's price side by side, the liquidity-weighted consensus probability, the dispersion between venues and the cheapest venue to buy YES or NO.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"limit": {
"description": "Max results (1-25, default 10)",
"type": "integer"
},
"minVenues": {
"description": "Minimum number of venues (default 2)",
"type": "integer"
},
"query": {
"description": "Keywords, e.g. 'bitcoin 2026' or 'senate'",
"type": "string"
},
"sort": {
"description": "Ordering (default volume)",
"enum": [
"volume",
"dispersion",
"edge",
"closing",
"venues"
],
"type": "string"
},
"theme": {
"description": "Restrict to one browsing theme",
"enum": [
"elections",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"crypto",
"economy",
"finance",
"tech-science",
"climate",
"culture",
"sports",
"other"
],
"type": "string"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "find_cross_venue_events"
},
{
"description": "Venues whose executable price is away from the consensus of the other real-money venues, with expected edge per contract if that consensus is right. Without a PRO plan, results beyond a short preview cost $0.01 per call from the caller's prepaid credit; callers without credit see the preview.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"limit": {
"description": "Max results (default 20)",
"type": "integer"
},
"minEdge": {
"description": "Minimum expected edge per contract (default 0)",
"type": "number"
},
"venue": {
"description": "Only signals on this venue",
"enum": [
"POLYMARKET",
"KALSHI",
"PREDICTIT"
],
"type": "string"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "find_mispricings"
},
{
"description": "The calling key's calibration record - Brier score, log loss, skill against the market price and the consensus at posting time, and a 10-bucket calibration curve.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "get_calibration"
},
{
"description": "One matched event by id (evt_...), with every venue quote and the live arbitrage and mispricing signals on it.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"id": {
"description": "Event id from find_cross_venue_events",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"id"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "get_event"
},
{
"description": "Full detail for one market by id: {venue}:{nativeId}, as returned by search_markets.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"id": {
"description": "Market id, e.g. polymarket:516710",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"id"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "get_market"
},
{
"description": "Implied probability of one market as the last value per bucket, for any range (default the last 24 hours at 5 minute resolution). History is kept permanently, including for closed markets. Without a PRO plan, the full series costs $0.002 per call from the caller's prepaid credit; callers without credit get the latest 12 points.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"from": {
"description": "Start, ISO-8601 instant or epoch millis (default: 24h before 'to')",
"type": "string"
},
"marketId": {
"description": "Market id",
"type": "string"
},
"resolutionSeconds": {
"description": "Bucket size in seconds (default 300)",
"type": "integer"
},
"to": {
"description": "End, exclusive, ISO-8601 instant or epoch millis (default: now)",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"marketId"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "get_price_history"
},
{
"description": "The calling key's signals, newest first, with status (OPEN, SCORED, VOID) and scores once resolved.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"limit": {
"description": "Max results (default 20)",
"type": "integer"
},
"marketId": {
"description": "Only signals on this market",
"type": "string"
},
"status": {
"description": "Filter by status",
"enum": [
"OPEN",
"SCORED",
"VOID"
],
"type": "string"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "list_my_signals"
},
{
"description": "Venues covered (Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Manifold), the number of open markets on each, sync health and whether prices are streamed live.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "list_venues"
},
{
"description": "Records a forecast on one market (or cross-venue event) for the calling API key. probability is the probability that the market resolves YES. The market price and cross-venue consensus at posting time are stored with it. Each signal is scored with Brier score and log loss when the market resolves, building a calibration record per key. It does not place a trade.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"confidence": {
"description": "Your confidence in this forecast, 0 to 1",
"type": "number"
},
"eventId": {
"description": "Cross-venue event id (evt_...), instead of marketId",
"type": "string"
},
"marketId": {
"description": "Market id ({venue}:{nativeId}); or give eventId",
"type": "string"
},
"probability": {
"description": "Your probability that the market resolves YES, between 0 and 1 exclusive",
"type": "number"
},
"rationale": {
"description": "Why, up to 4000 characters",
"type": "string"
},
"side": {
"description": "The side you would trade (default: YES if probability >= 0.5)",
"enum": [
"YES",
"NO"
],
"type": "string"
},
"size": {
"description": "Contracts you would trade",
"type": "number"
},
"ttlSeconds": {
"description": "How long the forecast stands (default one day)",
"type": "integer"
}
},
"required": [
"probability"
],
"type": "object"
},
"name": "post_signal"
},
{
"description": "Open binary markets on every venue whose text contains all the keywords, with normalised prices (probability, best bid and ask for YES and NO), volume, close time, the venue URL and the cross-venue eventId when the market is matched on other venues.",
"inputSchema": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"limit": {
"description": "Max results (1-50, default 10)",
"type": "integer"
},
"query": {
"description": "Keywords that must all appear, e.g. 'fed december cut'",
"type": "string"
},
"theme": {
"description": "Restrict to one browsing theme",
"enum": [
"elections",
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"crypto",
"economy",
"finance",
"tech-science",
"climate",
"culture",
"sports",
"other"
],
"type": "string"
},
"venue": {
"description": "Restrict to one venue",
"enum": [
"POLYMARKET",
"KALSHI",
"PREDICTIT",
"MANIFOLD"
],
"type": "string"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"name": "search_markets"
}
]
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"03854dd049474cf6baec9c59b7ae1ae8a3c7da1285f172c3423ac96861aada0f","id":237164,"kind":"mcp.tools","method":"probe.mcp/1","observed_us":1793029208077659,"prev":null,"subject":"f7b989a3-981a-40fe-8da6-6fe93623e7eb","subject_kind":"endpoint"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (296695 rows).
- 0x7a16e44f0494dbf92146ed7c91d8b843dfc66e237d2540f3ddd478febecdefe8
- 0x2710bd623cfd0c05339225cf7689f7caa55feccd4732566612c9d80985e1cb35
- 0x500df82ef0c9923df2ce138dee4496a6a7b6f70565f28f744f528891de1d01a6
- 0x919def44512f506d4747f4af97ebf3cb8376129345748faa6fc559cbf3389a56
- 0xe3effa3e4d863b808b9a0c7a43c6bf296af9ba816805557339bea8830f09a9f3
- 0x3feac3c8fa716ffe53b1c8096808ca71d23bfa6e74a56080e3bf01588af01038
- 0xa281bf85ebd74d0df7b22a096241f4eaa74177c175ab78130629a603fe3b892e
- 0x92d03ec8a7b10c17fe1781a7163b171ccd7f9bce50d0c153c49c6d1fc9376194
- 0x2b1846c8f1a71d5ca42246b859f4f9e7f7909cb9c881869cbb1bfe38b07466f7
- 0xd7bfe89d1c95d31c83b5cd958ac57e187ca41d9a64c12c75ed199d276c80aa6f
- 0x1474b20023ac420a3be8200f14f9ac14f1ee93ff05411fa3760c28b2e50fb3dd
- 0xa6406b1a5540d26e0cbd03bb274a01c10968fadb17913a6043bb9427ddfb71ba
- 0x01c95624b1f2385ef774ee258a9ae58a4df07a1bdaa829de84e1d5201f3f39c2
- 0x7721d38652b6444b18e1193824e50490ade04851ce6221771f6e374c4527d80f
- 0x15039087bf60ae9b06b756ec3cbc299760e59923a438bbd91e34d105186db0ed
- 0x2b6e23e3624a1b66e1d2298cfbce99a93ce6b13d24a58112a71802d79c5f7a76
- 0xd21942ae3214eff88e08ab04884fd4b11958b51af9a0741b7668e2d07a2c56c9
- 0x9a9024edb5069d88a324facb310a5ce8e495214bbaa968f077bede437390194f
- 0x9b9ce5b74b9bab5121612ef6b64920a8d453cbf311096a423eef9702747e868a
- Day root
- 0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
- Chained
- 0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae