← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 2201266
Observed , by sync.x402_bazaar/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://sports-calc.x402tookit.com/pythagorean-expectation
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 6e23e77419c3c38469ceba1696d5a800b6d59ece71a448498f1e0338c48d9973
- Leaf
- 0xd5e06ac4ac0d75aad0ea80dbd5d16a5618a24ba341cd45e4d8fb7dd171815da9
What was observed
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"name": "Sports Calculators",
"owner_address": "0xb531320805c5bed1d46aeadcf4f008fdf172dbda",
"raw": {
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{
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{
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],
"description": "Pythagorean expected win percentage and wins from points or runs for and against, with sport-specific exponents.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"allowed": 700,
"games": 162,
"scored": 800,
"sport": "baseball"
},
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},
"output": {
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:34:07.373Z",
"degraded": false,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"expectedLosses": 71.152,
"expectedWinPct": 0.560788,
"expectedWins": 90.848,
"exponent": 1.83,
"games": 162,
"notChecked": [
"injuries, schedule strength, luck in close games and late-season changes",
"that the exponent suits the league and era: it is a fitted constant, not a law",
"…1 more"
],
"reasons": [
"Expected win % = RS^x / (RS^x + RA^x), the Pythagorean expectation of Bill James with a fitted exponent.",
"Teams far from their Pythagorean record tend to drift back toward it, which is why it is used as a luck check."
],
"runDifferential": 100,
"runsPerGameScored": 4.9383,
"source": "computed locally",
"sport": "baseball",
"summary": "800 for, 700 against (baseball, exponent 1.83): expected win % 56.1, about 90.8 wins and 71.2 losses in 162 games.",
"verdict": "COMPUTED"
},
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},
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},
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},
"expectedWins": {
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},
"exponent": {
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},
"lastUpdated": "2026-11-02T04:06:59.908Z",
"quality": {
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"lastCalledAt": "2026-11-02T04:06:59.693Z"
},
"resource": "https://sports-calc.x402tookit.com/pythagorean-expectation",
"serviceName": "Sports Calculators",
"tags": [
"pythagorean",
"win-percentage",
"baseball",
"basketball",
"nfl"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Pythagorean expected win percentage and wins from points or runs for and against, with sport-specific exponents."
}What the leaf hashes
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Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (444186 rows).
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- Day root
- 0x78fecaabbe319e56f5c4b80fc02e2052e198ad24781da8832a475ff65f2002d1
- Chained
- 0xdc35957db5d1371ca382b9152878ffece28ec7c5cb4f98fd71ddb367f8b999b2
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 70432815: 0x56b814612eb2e3e544153df3e91e1f7199106d1e430c7d8c6b653feeb9ebe9af