← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 2201239
Observed , by sync.x402_bazaar/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/bayes
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- bb460f512286dbbab12dbdef777a5f1fd0e62ff989382725c6c59162213db2f4
- Leaf
- 0x977a73372b2481033dbe848624c817e2d662e69e15348a5499997a7d8d6d459a
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
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"x402",
"https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/bayes"
]
],
"name": "Probability Calculators",
"owner_address": "0xb531320805c5bed1d46aeadcf4f008fdf172dbda",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
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"transactionVersions": [
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"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
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"asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
"extra": {
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"version": "2"
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"network": "eip155:137",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:42161",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Bayes' theorem: posterior probability from a prior, sensitivity and false-positive rate, with natural frequencies and odds form.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
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"prior": 0.01,
"sensitivity": 0.8
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
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"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:16.580Z",
"degraded": false,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"falseAlarmShareOfPositives": 0.922360248447205,
"falsePositiveRate": 0.096,
"likelihoodRatioPositive": 8.333333333333334,
"naturalFrequencies": {
"falseNegatives": 20,
"falsePositives": 950,
"haveHypothesis": 100,
"population": 10000,
"trueNegatives": 8950,
"truePositives": 80
},
"notChecked": [
"whether the rates apply to the person or case in question (they are population averages)",
"repeated or dependent tests (the formula assumes one independent piece of evidence)",
"…1 more"
],
"posteriorGivenNegative": 0.002229753835176596,
"posteriorGivenPositive": 0.07763975155279504,
"posteriorOdds": 0.08417508417508418,
"prior": 0.01,
"priorOdds": 0.010101010101010102,
"probabilityOfPositive": 0.10304,
"reasons": [
"P(H | positive) = P(+|H) P(H) / [P(+|H) P(H) + P(+|not H) P(not H)].",
"A low base rate means most positives are false positives, even with a good test (base-rate fallacy).",
"…1 more"
],
"sensitivity": 0.8,
"source": "computed locally (Bayes' theorem)",
"specificity": 0.904,
"summary": "Prior 1.000%, sensitivity 80.0%, false-positive rate 9.60%: a positive result means a 7.76% chance the hypothesis is true.",
"verdict": "STRONG_UPDATE"
},
"type": "json"
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},
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"type": "integer"
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"disclaimer": {
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"falsePositiveRate": {
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"posteriorGivenPositive": {
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},
"lastUpdated": "2026-11-02T04:07:39.044Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 2,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-11-02T04:07:38.807Z"
},
"resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/bayes",
"serviceName": "Probability Calculators",
"tags": [
"bayes",
"conditional-probability",
"test-accuracy",
"posterior"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Bayes' theorem: posterior probability from a prior, sensitivity and false-positive rate, with natural frequencies and odds form."
}What the leaf hashes
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Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (444186 rows).
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- Day root
- 0x78fecaabbe319e56f5c4b80fc02e2052e198ad24781da8832a475ff65f2002d1
- Chained
- 0xdc35957db5d1371ca382b9152878ffece28ec7c5cb4f98fd71ddb367f8b999b2
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 70432815: 0x56b814612eb2e3e544153df3e91e1f7199106d1e430c7d8c6b653feeb9ebe9af