Evidence row 2201238

What was observed

{
  "endpoints": [
    [
      "x402",
      "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/birthday-problem"
    ]
  ],
  "name": "Probability Calculators",
  "owner_address": "0xb531320805c5bed1d46aeadcf4f008fdf172dbda",
  "raw": {
    "accepts": [
      {
        "amount": "20000",
        "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "extra": {
          "name": "USD Coin",
          "version": "2"
        },
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
        "scheme": "exact"
      },
      {
        "amount": "20000",
        "asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
        "extra": {
          "feePayer": "D6ZhtNQ5nT9ZnTHUbqXZsTx5MH2rPFiBBggX4hY1WePM",
          "transactionVersions": [
            0
          ]
        },
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
        "network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
        "payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
        "scheme": "exact"
      },
      {
        "amount": "20000",
        "asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
        "extra": {
          "name": "USD Coin",
          "version": "2"
        },
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
        "network": "eip155:137",
        "payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
        "scheme": "exact"
      },
      {
        "amount": "20000",
        "asset": "0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831",
        "extra": {
          "name": "USD Coin",
          "version": "2"
        },
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
        "network": "eip155:42161",
        "payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
        "scheme": "exact"
      }
    ],
    "description": "Birthday problem: chance two people in a group share a birthday, chance someone shares yours, group size for 50 or 99 percent.",
    "extensions": {
      "bazaar": {
        "info": {
          "input": {
            "method": "GET",
            "queryParams": {
              "people": 23
            },
            "type": "http"
          },
          "output": {
            "example": {
              "asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:16.842Z",
              "days": 365,
              "degraded": false,
              "disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
              "expectedSharedPairs": 0.6931506849315069,
              "notChecked": [
                "real birthdays are not uniform (seasonal peaks make coincidences slightly more likely)",
                "leap day (365 equally likely days assumed)",
                "…1 more"
              ],
              "othersNeededForFiftyPercentSharingYours": 253,
              "people": 23,
              "peopleForFiftyPercent": 23,
              "peopleForFiftyPercentSharingYours": 254,
              "peopleForNinetyNinePercent": 57,
              "probabilityAnyShared": 0.5072972343239854,
              "probabilityNoneShared": 0.49270276567601456,
              "probabilitySomeoneSharesYours": 0.058571325264343166,
              "reasons": [
                "P(no shared birthday) = (d/d)((d-1)/d)((d-2)/d)...: the number of PAIRS grows as n(n-1)/2, which is why coincidences are common.",
                "Sharing a birthday with a specific person is far less likely than any two people sharing one."
              ],
              "source": "computed locally (classical birthday problem)",
              "summary": "23 people, 365 days: 50.73% that at least two share a birthday; 5.86% that someone shares YOUR birthday.",
              "verdict": "MORE_LIKELY_THAN_NOT"
            },
            "type": "json"
          }
        },
        "schema": {
          "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
          "properties": {
            "input": {
              "additionalProperties": false,
              "properties": {
                "method": {
                  "enum": [
                    "GET"
                  ],
                  "type": "string"
                },
                "queryParams": {
                  "properties": {
                    "days": {
                      "description": "Equally likely birthdays (default 365)",
                      "type": "integer"
                    },
                    "people": {
                      "description": "Group size, 1 to 100000",
                      "type": "integer"
                    }
                  },
                  "required": [
                    "people"
                  ],
                  "type": "object"
                },
                "type": {
                  "const": "http",
                  "type": "string"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "type",
                "method"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            },
            "output": {
              "properties": {
                "example": {
                  "properties": {
                    "asOf": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "string"
                      ]
                    },
                    "days": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "degraded": {
                      "type": [
                        "boolean",
                        "null"
                      ]
                    },
                    "disclaimer": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "string"
                      ]
                    },
                    "expectedSharedPairs": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "notChecked": {
                      "items": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "type": [
                        "array",
                        "null"
                      ]
                    },
                    "othersNeededForFiftyPercentSharingYours": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "people": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "peopleForFiftyPercent": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "peopleForFiftyPercentSharingYours": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "peopleForNinetyNinePercent": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "probabilityAnyShared": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "probabilityNoneShared": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "probabilitySomeoneSharesYours": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "number"
                      ]
                    },
                    "reasons": {
                      "items": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "type": [
                        "array",
                        "null"
                      ]
                    },
                    "source": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "string"
                      ]
                    },
                    "summary": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "string"
                      ]
                    },
                    "verdict": {
                      "type": [
                        "null",
                        "string"
                      ]
                    }
                  },
                  "type": "object"
                },
                "type": {
                  "type": "string"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "type"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            }
          },
          "required": [
            "input"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        }
      }
    },
    "lastUpdated": "2026-11-02T04:07:40.278Z",
    "quality": {
      "l30DaysTotalCalls": 2,
      "l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
      "lastCalledAt": "2026-11-02T04:07:40.036Z"
    },
    "resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/birthday-problem",
    "serviceName": "Probability Calculators",
    "tags": [
      "birthday-problem",
      "probability",
      "coincidence"
    ],
    "type": "http",
    "x402Version": 2
  },
  "source": "x402_bazaar",
  "summary": "Birthday problem: chance two people in a group share a birthday, chance someone shares yours, group size for 50 or 99 percent."
}

What the leaf hashes

{"body":"b0609f77020b85356dc7b7a9a953322a5536011ea35b6ef2165b8b68efc74fd4","id":2201238,"kind":"listing","method":"sync.x402_bazaar/1","observed_us":1793646802981906,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/birthday-problem","subject_kind":"source_record"}

Proof

Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of 2026-11-02 (444186 rows).

1. 0xfb81104078503ab0b37f0123353e7ec75a13690d0a744b281ded8fbd925b64f5
2. 0xda73cec6466870ba94ba8657ead3a03a77fe7b40a97ea12da35ed4675805503c
3. 0x239ce93d24ad830d10bdf4cb8f968d9dbdf89269f620f6c4c31125442f2e3978
4. 0xee564ba99c92c293531ff9e75a42d511be99e4f3e3153efa76c7e4a56a2fb734
5. 0x0734b1cfc92fa020f6c6f0504e2327f03b579915b26f1f887c27f1d753c00411
6. 0x28e63eb0f26528b19036aa5acc71fe3a6d25e0528cbe738556278ae7b55eb4b8
7. 0xc74ed3faebd6a1c93bf87da4775dc9c6691f06aa5ba4c4da0f5f9f741fbd6e25
8. 0x379e6cae7b796cc11674b1c3aeaef271f5c40745aa57cee922700a5c20590c34
9. 0x98621e4334cf215f2eb618153d1da1e6305d8ecb08bb75e72649f856b5dfd512
10. 0x7469bbf4f5c444a457b3dfc71889b85f69294cadf51d9e1ce97bdad8b718ee2e
11. 0xc8a808be77d739d8920b0edb245e6e5d3d968e03503ac728b0dd1e11a1281248
12. 0xe600ed826c3a6308e95c2df107dc2afb9b3221f40683acc5d31f43293074b45f
13. 0x53d9a703c9e9f252a5170e08d05e1b0117ac9e5b187b8d11c1fc275324818140
14. 0x59ed3c823c7507ae1b2993d19eda543383739dde961b25c4e0927023fff6be12
15. 0x4068a4306db47ea0eae5f76e5137753caa3dbb132dca6a61a4d6c1838a52700f
16. 0x25127db2e775737b2874f6a159f7c1bf984317eea6482e94589c3ef4c5ccab32
17. 0xec5d643575d83c9e07e65deeef71943b53cbf3007e7e2b9a6ef414081509b0cc
18. 0x252cce55f1a3d5391c16f82d7f62494429a5f69b03486d4cfcfb7b2c96d6c884

Day root

0x78fecaabbe319e56f5c4b80fc02e2052e198ad24781da8832a475ff65f2002d1

Chained

0xdc35957db5d1371ca382b9152878ffece28ec7c5cb4f98fd71ddb367f8b999b2

Published

On Arc Testnet, block 70432815: 0x56b814612eb2e3e544153df3e91e1f7199106d1e430c7d8c6b653feeb9ebe9af