← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 2201235
Observed , by sync.x402_bazaar/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 13e6af6f2ebdaf6b6abe09fce9ec6a06299943a1276742ea2f2a2f955162ec35
- Leaf
- 0x38c8819de07bfc20bbe4a23647f03c040c322b8a097f96e1fa088e749c516151
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
[
"x402",
"https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value"
]
],
"name": "Probability Calculators",
"owner_address": "0xb531320805c5bed1d46aeadcf4f008fdf172dbda",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
"feePayer": "D6ZhtNQ5nT9ZnTHUbqXZsTx5MH2rPFiBBggX4hY1WePM",
"transactionVersions": [
0
]
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:137",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:42161",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"normalize": "true",
"outcomes": "35:1,-1:37"
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:17.888Z",
"bestOutcome": {
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
"breakEvenCost": -0.052631578947368474,
"costApplied": 0,
"degraded": false,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"expectedValue": -0.052631578947368474,
"notChecked": [
"utility or risk preference: a positive expected value does not make a bet advisable (Kelly, ruin and variance matter)",
"the accuracy of the probabilities you supplied",
"…1 more"
],
"outcomes": [
{
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
{
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
],
"probabilityLoss": 0.9736842105263158,
"probabilityPositive": 0.02631578947368421,
"reasons": [
"EV = sum of payoff x probability; variance = sum of (payoff - EV)^2 x probability.",
"Over many plays you lose about 0.0526 per play on average; short runs can still win."
],
"source": "computed locally",
"standardDeviation": 5.762617133966734,
"summary": "Expected value -0.052632 per play; standard deviation 5.7626; chance of a positive result 2.63%.",
"variance": 33.20775623268698,
"verdict": "NEGATIVE_EXPECTATION",
"worstOutcome": {
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
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"properties": {
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"properties": {
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},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {
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"type": "number"
},
"normalize": {
"description": "true to treat the numbers after the colon as weights and scale them to sum to 1",
"type": "string"
},
"outcomes": {
"description": "payoff:probability pairs, comma separated: 35:0.0263158,-1:0.9736842 (roulette straight-up, net of stake)",
"type": "string"
}
},
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"number"
]
},
"probability": {
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"number"
]
}
},
"type": [
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"object"
]
},
"breakEvenCost": {
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"null",
"number"
]
},
"costApplied": {
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"null",
"number"
]
},
"degraded": {
"type": [
"boolean",
"null"
]
},
"disclaimer": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"expectedValue": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"notChecked": {
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"type": [
"array",
"null"
]
},
"outcomes": {
"items": {
"properties": {
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]
},
"probability": {
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"number"
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}
},
"type": "object"
},
"type": [
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]
},
"probabilityLoss": {
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"null",
"number"
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},
"probabilityPositive": {
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]
},
"reasons": {
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},
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"array",
"null"
]
},
"source": {
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"string"
]
},
"standardDeviation": {
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},
"summary": {
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},
"variance": {
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},
"verdict": {
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]
},
"worstOutcome": {
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"number"
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},
"probability": {
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},
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}
}
},
"lastUpdated": "2026-11-02T04:07:42.599Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 2,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-11-02T04:07:42.348Z"
},
"resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value",
"serviceName": "Probability Calculators",
"tags": [
"expected-value",
"variance",
"payoff",
"probability"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights."
}What the leaf hashes
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- Day root
- 0x78fecaabbe319e56f5c4b80fc02e2052e198ad24781da8832a475ff65f2002d1
- Chained
- 0xdc35957db5d1371ca382b9152878ffece28ec7c5cb4f98fd71ddb367f8b999b2
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 70432815: 0x56b814612eb2e3e544153df3e91e1f7199106d1e430c7d8c6b653feeb9ebe9af