← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 2201178
Observed , by sync.x402_bazaar/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://time-series-calc.x402tookit.com/exponential-smoothing
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- eff4d441eefc2455197c7de60fc252551f0f777cf8bbb52d3cb15520807a8e9e
- Leaf
- 0x3df8569968648dc1cc6b438e3f4a65c637d3a11bafc1d50037663f1afcc62498
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
[
"x402",
"https://time-series-calc.x402tookit.com/exponential-smoothing"
]
],
"name": "Time Series Calculators",
"owner_address": "0xb531320805c5bed1d46aeadcf4f008fdf172dbda",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "30000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "30000",
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
"feePayer": "D6ZhtNQ5nT9ZnTHUbqXZsTx5MH2rPFiBBggX4hY1WePM",
"transactionVersions": [
0
]
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "30000",
"asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:137",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "30000",
"asset": "0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300,
"network": "eip155:42161",
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Simple, Holt trend or Holt-Winters seasonal exponential smoothing with a forecast h steps ahead and in-sample fit error.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"alpha": 0.5,
"beta": 0.3,
"horizon": 3,
"method": "holt",
"values": "10,12,11,13,15,14,16,18"
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"alpha": 0.5,
"asOf": "2026-10-21T06:18:22.423Z",
"beta": 0.3,
"degraded": false,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"finalLevel": 17.5657908,
"finalTrend": 1.14577245,
"fitted": [
null,
12
],
"fittedCount": 7,
"forecast": [
18.7115632,
19.8573357
],
"gamma": null,
"horizon": 3,
"inSampleMae": 1.08524103,
"inSampleRmse": 1.53548832,
"inSampleSse": 16.5040707,
"method": "holt",
"notChecked": [
"parameter optimisation (alpha, beta, gamma are used exactly as given)",
"prediction intervals",
"…1 more"
],
"reasons": [
"Level starts at the first value and trend at (second - first); fitted values begin at position 2.",
"Forecasts use the final state only. Parameters are as given, not optimised.",
"…1 more"
],
"seasonLength": null,
"seasonalIndices": null,
"source": "computed locally (Hyndman and Athanasopoulos, Forecasting: Principles and Practice, exponential smoothing methods)",
"summary": "holt smoothing: forecast 3 steps ahead starts at 18.7116; in-sample RMSE 1.535.",
"verdict": "COMPUTED"
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {
"alpha": {
"description": "Level smoothing 0 to 1 exclusive of 0 (default 0.3)",
"type": "number"
},
"beta": {
"description": "Trend smoothing 0 to 1 (default 0.1; holt and hw only)",
"type": "number"
},
"gamma": {
"description": "Seasonal smoothing 0 to 1 (default 0.1; hw only)",
"type": "number"
},
"horizon": {
"description": "Steps to forecast, 1 to 100 (default 3)",
"type": "integer"
},
"method": {
"description": "simple, holt, hw-additive or hw-multiplicative (default simple)",
"type": "string"
},
"seasonLength": {
"description": "Observations per season, 2 or more (required for hw; needs 2 full seasons of data)",
"type": "integer"
},
"values": {
"description": "Comma-separated numbers in time order, oldest first (2 to 500), any one unit",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"values"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"alpha": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"asOf": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"beta": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"degraded": {
"type": [
"boolean",
"null"
]
},
"disclaimer": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"finalLevel": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"finalTrend": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"fitted": {
"items": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"type": [
"array",
"null"
]
},
"fittedCount": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"forecast": {
"items": {
"type": "number"
},
"type": [
"array",
"null"
]
},
"gamma": {},
"horizon": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"inSampleMae": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"inSampleRmse": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"inSampleSse": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"method": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"notChecked": {
"items": {
"type": "string"
},
"type": [
"array",
"null"
]
},
"reasons": {
"items": {
"type": "string"
},
"type": [
"array",
"null"
]
},
"seasonLength": {},
"seasonalIndices": {},
"source": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"summary": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"verdict": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
},
"lastUpdated": "2026-11-02T04:09:43.739Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 1,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-11-02T04:09:43.506Z"
},
"resource": "https://time-series-calc.x402tookit.com/exponential-smoothing",
"serviceName": "Time Series Calculators",
"tags": [
"exponential-smoothing",
"forecast",
"holt-winters",
"time-series"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Simple, Holt trend or Holt-Winters seasonal exponential smoothing with a forecast h steps ahead and in-sample fit error."
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"eff4d441eefc2455197c7de60fc252551f0f777cf8bbb52d3cb15520807a8e9e","id":2201178,"kind":"listing","method":"sync.x402_bazaar/1","observed_us":1793646801193704,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://time-series-calc.x402tookit.com/exponential-smoothing","subject_kind":"source_record"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (444186 rows).
- 0x3df880b138d212f8d618d1b34218eccc226fef72c07d9dd3280cf063627d09a3
- 0x2cfb8f9e1bfbfcc0f6038b0552fcb6abd3da2a76159a22077645d9194f8eeb6a
- 0xc3a827c705bf82b1498d44d1e58c3915666899ac91c41858bd517194e97ef143
- 0x82ae6d56375068722c21f0a5b606f18c71115bbec998d0bdcabde17de7d8629a
- 0x948f36f834c314c95aa314e8a4e449d57e9ddcf507161b2f43d9cf77d3c9de57
- 0xf55c2e8a8b0659cde46960c5491e2b9ac3429ba26b39a84b19385399ddc29470
- 0x6d6c39bf4df06a9ed7b13ac353a3a4ff158c443ab29ec1ee66180e4c5baaba64
- 0x4d2edcc2dc5f6ca14b7928b1faaee55c2127b4e0e69e6e30fdcdcc71a6febb06
- 0x55d5da242fc4b204f44bf3af14af7eae4c6a3395c2ab92f18498213812a1098c
- 0x0093a9f56bed29515e4c952c8636a7899fdd721726c104eaf5aa0481bcf1d5d2
- 0xd6359ca2c1e268b80cbd6a1a39e7bf31cc48f7cc2c0c7ca155d42f73229b2dba
- 0xb1c944b99390ba5175965090f5362380c7485dc911c281e22b9c18263ec8c4ed
- 0x361907c755dedca0a2adf05840c4c503b2c9a3af060e2659c8c63c2a1e438de2
- 0x2205fefa1140121f3fe567e386a9612e8f7236f2a6b4c18d07e5fc4d08bd90e5
- 0x8448bd1fe3c2d48b62a118ace4a5cb82fee53586dd43d776c2526ad844398919
- 0x8760c227928c5295506cd8606e763f86cf8cd2a549820fab4dc86d29ca0d816d
- 0xa20b9be86af7d690e040c9060a373b2fc5498edf3432f43c26f74fa2febc1e9a
- 0x050f2978b537f7afb21ee1551577cdf146d1c56f4df12d24315ae5e69366b0a4
- 0x365b161a4b68d750dcc4b3ecce1154a2163c87b08762079428e68f0ebb6a754e
- Day root
- 0x78fecaabbe319e56f5c4b80fc02e2052e198ad24781da8832a475ff65f2002d1
- Chained
- 0xdc35957db5d1371ca382b9152878ffece28ec7c5cb4f98fd71ddb367f8b999b2
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 70432815: 0x56b814612eb2e3e544153df3e91e1f7199106d1e430c7d8c6b653feeb9ebe9af