← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 125176
Observed , by baseline/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- 51a4645725867145fc2632b5c0ec7298fbb8e72ae62314f4c1a97c63b748e018
- Leaf
- 0xdc80e1023c40918246e5aa188071ed999deed8b3a1898038eac6c931f0eb16a9
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
[
"x402",
"https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy"
]
],
"name": "x402-factory",
"owner_address": "0xcc42ed39a06b6cf3f484307ef76b88bf56fb305f",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0xCc42Ed39a06b6cF3f484307eF76B88Bf56Fb305f",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Live probability: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"data": {
"category": "crypto",
"current_slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
"divergence": 0.0095,
"last_move_1h": 0.0023,
"per_venue": [
{
"implied_p": 0.6534,
"liquidity_score": 0.948,
"market_id": "KXBITCOINABOVE10",
"venue": "kalshi",
"volume_24h_usd": 278227.41
},
{
"implied_p": 0.6439,
"liquidity_score": 0.932,
"market_id": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
"venue": "polymarket",
"volume_24h_usd": 132320.07
}
],
"probability": 0.6492,
"question": "Will Bitcoin close 2026 above $100,000?",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades above $100,000 at the Dec 31 close reference.",
"resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
"rolls_to_next_at": "2026-12-31",
"slug": "bitcoin-above-100k-2026-12",
"topic": "btc-above-100k-eoy",
"topic_question": "Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end?"
},
"meta": {
"data_mode": "live",
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.evergreen.btc-above-100k-eoy",
"endpoint": "/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy",
"freshness": "realtime",
"generated_at": "2026-09-29T05:40:59.277Z",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0"
}
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"properties": {},
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"data": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"current_slug": {
"type": "string"
},
"divergence": {
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"last_move_1h": {
"type": "number"
},
"per_venue": {
"items": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"implied_p": {
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"liquidity_score": {
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"market_id": {
"type": "string"
},
"venue": {
"enum": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"type": "string"
},
"volume_24h_usd": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"venue",
"market_id",
"implied_p",
"volume_24h_usd",
"liquidity_score"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": "array"
},
"probability": {
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolution_criteria_summary": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolution_date": {
"type": "string"
},
"rolls_to_next_at": {
"type": "string"
},
"slug": {
"type": "string"
},
"topic": {
"type": "string"
},
"topic_question": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"slug",
"question",
"probability",
"per_venue",
"divergence",
"category",
"resolution_date",
"resolution_criteria_summary",
"last_move_1h",
"topic",
"topic_question",
"current_slug",
"rolls_to_next_at"
],
"type": "object"
},
"meta": {
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"data",
"meta"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
},
"lastUpdated": "2026-10-01T13:09:45.717Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 1,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-10-01T13:09:45.588Z"
},
"resource": "https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy",
"serviceName": "x402-factory",
"tags": [
"probability",
"prediction-market",
"evergreen",
"btc-above-100k-eoy"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Live probability: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? — Stable evergreen URL for a recurring question: Will Bitcoin trade above $100k at year end? Auto-resolves to the current market instance and rolls forward on resolution, so the answer is always about the next occurrence. Response adds current_slug and rolls_to_next_at to the standard probability shape."
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"51a4645725867145fc2632b5c0ec7298fbb8e72ae62314f4c1a97c63b748e018","id":125176,"kind":"listing","method":"baseline/1","observed_us":1793025625897803,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://x402-factory.com/v1/evergreen/btc-above-100k-eoy","subject_kind":"source_record"}Proof
Its day has not closed yet. A day closes ten minutes after midnight UTC; the proof appears here then.