← The evidence ledger
Evidence row 118471
Observed , by baseline/1.
- Kind
- listing
- About
- source_record x402_bazaar:https://perp-gap-api.perpgap.workers.dev/pm/implied
- Recorded
- Previous row
- None: the first of its kind about this subject
- Body SHA-256
- a5509286c26ac1ce64a556c57b4fbffa02ee65d25fcef01917104bc6071ec280
- Leaf
- 0x832a49493b22c75e256922615dee2e84ba0bd2ab6061dce192a774cdb0a51d26
What was observed
{
"endpoints": [
[
"x402",
"https://perp-gap-api.perpgap.workers.dev/pm/implied"
]
],
"name": "Perp Gap API",
"owner_address": "0x2d82dcb9cc3a168d9ab25b62c1e33e278a51254f",
"raw": {
"accepts": [
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120,
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x2d82dcB9cC3a168d9Ab25b62C1E33E278A51254F",
"scheme": "exact"
},
{
"amount": "20000",
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
"feePayer": "D6ZhtNQ5nT9ZnTHUbqXZsTx5MH2rPFiBBggX4hY1WePM"
},
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120,
"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"payTo": "5MoL8HNnvZUogGrqiF4T1StmAUpdU7ERA2GUJ7gLrEja",
"scheme": "exact"
}
],
"description": "Use when an agent must decide if a Hyperliquid prediction market on a crypto or stock price (e.g. 'BTC above 82k on Oct 19', 'SP500 above 7730') is cheap or expensive. Returns each live outcome's bid, ask and depth, the probability implied by the live perp price and 7d realized vol, edge in pp vs bid and ask, and a liquidity flag. Empty books are filtered. Errors: 400 bad input, 404 no live market (both free, never charged), 402, 502. Data, not advice.",
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"asset": "BTC"
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"asset": "SP500",
"count": 1,
"disclaimer": "Data, not financial advice. Not an offer or solicitation; Hyperliquid outcome markets are not available to US or other excluded persons.",
"filtered_out_empty_or_thin": 0,
"generated_at_iso": "2026-10-17T13:11:38Z",
"label": "data, not advice",
"markets": [
{
"ask": 0.1656,
"ask_size": 470,
"asset": "SP500",
"best_edge_pp": -4.6,
"bid": 0.0676,
"bid_size": 531,
"book_age_s": 0,
"book_ts": "2026-10-17T13:11:38Z",
"depth_usd": {
"ask": 160.58,
"bid": 96.64,
"levels": 5,
"window_pp": 5
},
"edge_vs_ask_pp": -4.6,
"edge_vs_bid_pp": -5.2,
"expiry": "2026-10-19T20:00:00Z",
"hours_to_expiry": 54.81,
"kind": "stocks",
"liquid": true,
"mid": 0.1166,
"model_prob": 0.1196,
"outcome": 11676,
"perp": "xyz:SP500",
"question": "SP500 above 7730 at 2026-10-19 20:00:00 UTC",
"realized_vol_7d": 0.1073,
"settlement": {
"side": "Yes pays 1 USDC if the price is above the strike at expiry",
"source": "the Pyth US500 index price",
"window_seconds": 90
},
"signal": "fair",
"spot_mid": 7653.45,
"spread_pp": 9.8,
"strike": 7730
}
],
"method": "P(S_T > K) under a lognormal model with zero drift, S = live Hyperliquid perp mid, sigma = 7-day realized vol from Hyperliquid 1h candles (annualized x sqrt(8760)). No options data. Edges use executable bid/ask, never mid.",
"min_depth_usd": 0,
"source": "Hyperliquid info API (outcomeMeta, l2Book, allMids, candleSnapshot)",
"spot": {
"live": true,
"mid": 7653.45,
"perp": "xyz:SP500",
"realized_vol_7d": 0.1073,
"vol_as_of": "2026-10-17T13:10:10Z"
}
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"asset": {
"description": "Underlying perp: BTC, ETH, HYPE, ZEC or trade.xyz perps like SP500, XYZ100, META, TSLA, CL, GOLD (xyz: prefix optional). Case-insensitive. Default BTC when neither asset nor outcome is given.",
"examples": [
"BTC",
"SP500"
],
"pattern": "^[A-Za-z0-9:]{1,16}$",
"type": "string"
},
"min_depth_usd": {
"default": "0",
"description": "Optional. Hide markets with less than this USDC resting within 5 pp of the touch on either side. Default 0 (empty books are always hidden).",
"examples": [
"50"
],
"pattern": "^\\d+(\\.\\d+)?$",
"type": "string"
},
"outcome": {
"description": "Optional Hyperliquid outcome id to price a single market (see free GET /pm/markets).",
"examples": [
"11676"
],
"pattern": "^\\d{1,9}$",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"description": "Error responses are JSON {error: string}: 400 bad or empty asset, bad outcome or min_depth_usd (free); 404 no live Hyperliquid binary price market for that asset/outcome, or all its books are empty (free, never charged); 402 payment required; 502 upstream error.",
"properties": {
"asset": {
"type": "string"
},
"count": {
"type": "integer"
},
"disclaimer": {
"type": "string"
},
"filtered_out_empty_or_thin": {
"type": "integer"
},
"generated_at_iso": {
"format": "date-time",
"type": "string"
},
"label": {
"const": "data, not advice",
"type": "string"
},
"markets": {
"items": {
"properties": {
"ask": {
"description": "Best Yes ask (probability, 0-1)",
"type": "number"
},
"ask_size": {
"type": "number"
},
"asset": {
"type": "string"
},
"best_edge_pp": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"bid": {
"description": "Best Yes bid (probability, 0-1)",
"type": "number"
},
"bid_size": {
"type": "number"
},
"book_age_s": {
"type": "integer"
},
"book_ts": {
"format": "date-time",
"type": "string"
},
"depth_usd": {
"description": "USDC notional resting within window_pp of the touch, top 5 levels",
"properties": {
"ask": {
"type": "number"
},
"bid": {
"type": "number"
},
"levels": {
"type": "integer"
},
"window_pp": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"edge_vs_ask_pp": {
"description": "(model_prob - ask) x 100: > 0 means you could buy Yes below model value",
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"edge_vs_bid_pp": {
"description": "(bid - model_prob) x 100: > 0 means you could sell Yes above model value",
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"expiry": {
"format": "date-time",
"type": "string"
},
"hours_to_expiry": {
"type": "number"
},
"kind": {
"enum": [
"crypto",
"stocks"
],
"type": "string"
},
"liquid": {
"description": "spread <= 10 pp (scan: max_spread_pp) and >= $50 depth on both sides (scan: min_depth_usd)",
"type": "boolean"
},
"mid": {
"type": "number"
},
"model_prob": {
"description": "Model P(price > strike at expiry), 0-1",
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"outcome": {
"description": "Hyperliquid outcome id (Yes token = coin #<id>0)",
"type": "integer"
},
"perp": {
"description": "Underlying Hyperliquid perp, e.g. BTC or xyz:META",
"type": "string"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"realized_vol_7d": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"settlement": {
"properties": {
"side": {
"type": "string"
},
"source": {
"type": [
"string",
"null"
]
},
"window_seconds": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"signal": {
"enum": [
"yes_underpriced",
"yes_overpriced",
"fair",
"illiquid",
"no_model"
],
"type": "string"
},
"spot_mid": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"spread_pp": {
"type": "number"
},
"strike": {
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"outcome",
"asset",
"strike",
"expiry",
"bid",
"ask",
"depth_usd",
"liquid"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": "array"
},
"method": {
"type": "string"
},
"min_depth_usd": {
"type": "number"
},
"signal_rule": {
"type": "string"
},
"source": {
"type": "string"
},
"spot": {
"properties": {
"live": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"mid": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"perp": {
"type": "string"
},
"realized_vol_7d": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"vol_as_of": {
"type": [
"string",
"null"
]
}
},
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"asset",
"markets",
"label",
"disclaimer"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
},
"lastUpdated": "2026-10-17T19:46:18.473Z",
"quality": {
"l30DaysTotalCalls": 2,
"l30DaysUniquePayers": 1,
"lastCalledAt": "2026-10-17T19:46:17.957Z"
},
"resource": "https://perp-gap-api.perpgap.workers.dev/pm/implied",
"serviceName": "Perp Gap API",
"tags": [
"Trading",
"Data",
"Prediction Markets",
"prediction-markets",
"hyperliquid"
],
"type": "http",
"x402Version": 2
},
"source": "x402_bazaar",
"summary": "Use when an agent must decide if a Hyperliquid prediction market on a crypto or stock price (e.g. 'BTC above 82k on Oct 19', 'SP500 above 7730') is cheap or expensive. Returns each live outcome's bid, ask and depth, the probability implied by the live perp price and 7d realized vol, edge in pp vs bid and ask, and a liquidity flag. Empty books are filtered. Errors: 400 bad input, 404 no live market (both free, never charged), 402, 502. Data, not advice."
}What the leaf hashes
{"body":"a5509286c26ac1ce64a556c57b4fbffa02ee65d25fcef01917104bc6071ec280","id":118471,"kind":"listing","method":"baseline/1","observed_us":1793025613088201,"prev":null,"subject":"x402_bazaar:https://perp-gap-api.perpgap.workers.dev/pm/implied","subject_kind":"source_record"}Proof
Fold these into the leaf in order, hashing each sorted pair with keccak256, to reach the root of (296695 rows).
- 0x832a325a6c0aab6187eccacaf16ba9fbb0de1c4e1e6242d9b1bb52b326f8a985
- 0x4cfa4fbb336bb8270bb15f9ba1c91ce93fb058b9d3b4b9018ee38c1a7879b5df
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- 0x6d1b7fdbc7d9f73a761860fc697727c2f0ba58fad9c99863efc54bcc81321db9
- 0x5771d0e84b1b25b2b275de5ece192b59982664b39576db36605ad91c5c47197b
- 0x94aed827efd5169e759bd30b12397a717241522b313e2ece17937a4e8bc55ae6
- 0x529c5cf8f893c30228440ba5236dc68976530cdc94b0f77f641df0d01b961333
- 0xacad0f9a3f73a8e6ed8075c2de7160a3bc80740c46f8e14c41cd66c47a8d4d91
- 0x3dad3f37dda3f6ba29a198ef717b4cfdf355397e80bf35ab1e416791eb7d3e46
- 0x77d9a819e7da4b6e40623e7602d7c7d412287edd9a1c98aa67bad88cfa8db3ce
- 0x6e037384448a2bbd201b4e7e9e6e447d7254d0d2926b3fd2e81fdf99eae4a06b
- 0xfdaa032291ded0df2cf35d6e9dc6e7a2643d0fe027dd3ab321971f1f7bf69147
- 0x91c2ae93ec20c7fed5088112fe3941ca622dfb3f8f1022c4844726c361244bd4
- 0x0eff463856b0992d53ab7d8c0b97c71541413358bdd445710c1e4b6aeb4d8f78
- 0x7eb603d37f0f22dae1ea013e391889906ffc0139ff26e25b044bee38eec8f9b2
- 0x2b6e23e3624a1b66e1d2298cfbce99a93ce6b13d24a58112a71802d79c5f7a76
- 0xd21942ae3214eff88e08ab04884fd4b11958b51af9a0741b7668e2d07a2c56c9
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- 0x9b9ce5b74b9bab5121612ef6b64920a8d453cbf311096a423eef9702747e868a
- Day root
- 0xf43e8dcc3d451a4788b26be904c55e8c4c0fa75c9666796c51db38d37e2c0df8
- Chained
- 0x702d5ac508f08b0d1accf36af25822d8e5660367494edd17a642fb61e158a57a
- Published
- On Arc Testnet, block 69251483: 0x495162f8936e19f0039918feebe6c307f327cd6bf8c37219620b1970041fa9ae